Not this time; not here in Arthur Ashe Stadium; not again.

So when Jessica Pegula courageously fought back to level the first set after trailing 5-2, Sabalenka did not let her mind drift back to last September, when she was unable to capitalise on a similarly auspicious start against Coco Gauff. She did not dwell on the succession of heartbreaks she has suffered at Flushing Meadows, where she has made the semi-finals or better in each of the past three years only to be undone by Leylah Fernandez, Iga Swiatek and Gauff.

This time, when she held two break points early in the second set, just as she had done against Gauff last year, Sabalenka drove home the advantage. Even when Pegula, New York-born and willed on by a febrile crowd, rose from the canvas a second time to reel off five straight games and bring an absorbing contest to the brink of a decider, the Belarusian world No 2 did not blench. Her resolve was rewarded with a 7-5, 7-5 victory and a third grand slam trophy to sit alongside her two Australian Open crowns. 

“I thought that I would be thinking a lot about previous years here, because I had a lot of tough lessons here at the US Open, very difficult ones I would say, especially last year,” said Sabalenka after marking her 100th grand slam match with a repeat of her straight-sets victory over Pegula in Cincinnati. “But today I just kept reminding myself that this is the US Open final, of course she’s going to fight really hard for it and it’s not going to be easy, and I have to work really hard to get it. 

“In those tough moments, I was just trying to stay strong and remind myself that I’ve been through a lot and I’m strong enough to hold under this pressure. So I’m actually really glad that I didn’t have any [flashbacks to] last year.

“It’s a very special place here, the US Open, and I had a lot of tough losses in the past. I was always hoping that one day I’ll be able to hold this beautiful trophy, it’s been always my dream. That’s why it’s very special because, no matter what, every time I was coming back stronger and I was learning. I never gave up on this dream, and that means a lot.”

At the age of 26, Sabalenka is beginning to carve a niche alongside some of the greatest names in the sport’s history. With her latest victory, she joins Angelique Kerber as the second woman this century to win the Australian and US Open in the same season. Since 1988, meanwhile, when both events were held on hard courts for the first time, only Steffi Graf, Monica Seles and Martina Hingis have completed the rarefied double. The only other female players in the open era to do it are Margaret Court, Chris Evert and Martina Navratilova. Sabalenka’s father Sergey, who died in 2019, would have been proud.

“After I lost my father it’s always been my goal to put our family name in the history of tennis,” said Sabalenka. “Every time I see my name on that trophy, I’m so proud of myself and proud of my family that they never gave up on my dream and that they were doing everything they could to keep me going. I had this opportunity in life, so it really means a lot.”

Pegula too has dreamed of such moments. Before this week, the 30-year-old had lost all six of the grand slam quarter-finals she had contested. Having finally broken that duck with an inspired win over perennial nemesis Iga Swiatek, the sixth seed gave everything in pursuit of a first title at this level. Buoyed by a raucous reception as she emerged on to Ashe for the biggest match of her career, Pegula immediately made clear her determination to play the match on the front foot. She responded to an early ace from Sabalenka with an untouchable serve of her own as she levelled at a game apiece, then moved inside the baseline to drill a huge forehand return at the Belarusian’s feet and claim the first break.

Pegula’s aggression carried her within a point of consolidating her advantage before Sabalenka decided she had seen enough. A blazing forehand winner pulled the score back to deuce. Then, showcasing the variety she has added to her game over the past year, the Belarusian tempted Pegula into error with a floated defensive slice. A blazing return secured the break back, and from there Sabalenka began to dominate. She bossed the baseline exchanges. She made successful forays to the net. She slammed down serves at speeds of up to 119mph and won four straight games. It seemed a rout might be on the cards.

Then, the worm turned. Pegula played a strong service game. Errors began creeping into Sabalenka’s play. As the Belarusian served for the set, a double fault brought up a break point for Pegula. Sabalenka saved it with a booming forehand, but then made two straight errors off the same wing. Pegula, quietly confident but never cocksure, did her best to orchestrate the crowd, waving her arms slightly awkwardly. It did the trick. With an explosion of patriotic fervour still ringing in her ears, she played another fine service game to level at 5-5. Remarkably, she had won 14 of the previous 18 points. For Sabalenka, still nursing the scars of all those past disappointments, it must have felt like groundhog day. 

When another double fault gifted Pegula a break point that would have left her serving for the set, Sabalenka was left beating at the ground in fury. She averted the danger with a courageous backhand winner that kissed the back edge of the baseline, but she was flirting with disaster. 

Pegula was now returning with depth and conviction, so much so that Sabalenka attempted a 111mph second serve. Inevitably, it resulted in another double fault. But the world No 2 kept swinging, and after eight tense minutes she finally held. Pegula saved four set points in the next game, the initiative swinging back and forth until a double fault from the American handed Sabalenka a fifth. Now she offered another reminder of her expanded repertoire, sealing the set with a deft backhand that was part drop shot, part short, angled slice.

“It’s really good to have these options in your pocket,” said Sabalenka. “Sometimes you don’t feel your best on the baseline, and you can just go for a slice, or a drop shot, or come to the net. I’ve always worked on this variation on the court, and I’m really glad that that I’m brave enough to use these tools in those key moments.”

They were needed again when Pegula, having recovered from 3-0 down in the second set, served to force a decider at 5-4. Sabalenka began the game with a wonderful display of balletic athleticism, rising to angle away a high backhand volley with her back to the court. She ended it in signature style, slamming a forehand winner on to the sideline to break. She would not be caught again. 

“I have to go for it, that’s the only way it works for me,” smiled Sabalenka. 

As this victory proved, that is no longer altogether true. When Pegula sent a final forehand long, signalling the end of her resistance, Sabalenka sunk to her knees and then collapsed on her back, her body shaking with emotion. After a consolatory hug for the American, she made her way into the stands, half-crying, half-laughing, before celebrating wildly with her support team. It is unlikely to be the last time we witness such scenes.

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If ever there was a time and place to alter that narrative, however, it was at this US Open of myriad upsetsand notable American success. And on Wednesday night, the 30-year-old New Yorker did just that, producing a poised, patient and disciplined performance to see off Swiatek in straight sets and reach her first grand slam semi-final. Tellingly, for all her evident joy at emulating the success of her compatriots Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe, whose meeting on Friday will ensure an American presence in a men’s singles final at Flushing Meadows for the first time since 2006, Pegula’s overriding emotion was relief at ending her quarter-final hoodoo.

“I’ve been [to the last eight] so many freaking times, I just kept losing – but to great players, to girls that went on and won the tournament,” said Pegula after her 6-2, 6-4 victory. “So I know everyone keeps asking me about it, but I was like, ‘I don’t know what else to do, I just need to get there again and win the match.’ Thank God I was able to do it and finally – finally! – I can say, ‘Semi-finalist.’”

The foundations for that breakthrough were laid early. With 21 minutes gone, Swiatek had racked up a dozen unforced errors and been broken twice, each time on a double fault. Pegula, meanwhile, was commanding the baseline exchanges, maintaining immaculate length with her flat, powerful groundstrokes, refusing to give ground or be rushed. Tellingly, Swiatek did not hit a single winner in those first four games. By the end of the set, the Pole had put just 36% of her first serves into play and was chattering agitatedly to her team. It was a dream start for Pegula.

“I wanted to come out playing the way I wanted to play,” said Pegula. “I had an idea in my mind of what I learned from the last time I played her at [the WTA] Finals, and [I wanted to] play within myself and then just see where she was at. 

“I could tell right away that she was frustrated on the serve, and then I was like, ‘OK.’ I wanted to attack the serve pretty early, but it depends on how she’s serving: am I going to get a lot of second serve looks, am I not? So once I saw that [her serve] wasn’t really working that well, I made it a point to really try and step in and try to keep doing that the entire time.

“I started off playing well, so I just kind of tried to stay within myself and then adjust according to how she was playing.”

With a dismal start behind her, Swiatek began the second set in stronger vein, running Pegula from pillar to post to seal a convincing early hold. But the American world No 6, who has worked hard to improve her movement, remained unperturbed. As Swiatek lapsed back into error, Pegula broke to go ahead again, and although the top seed hit back immediately, there was a palpable lack of confidence about her play, particularly off the forehand. With the ball flying off Swiatek’s strings and Pegula showing some resourceful defensive play, things came to a head in the seventh game. Fighting to raise her level, Swiatek saved two break points but could not fend off a third, drilling a forehand into the alley off a slow, floated slice. There would be no way back. 

“It’s never easy to play against Jess,” said Swiatek. “She has a tricky ball, because it’s pretty low and pretty flat. I wouldn’t say she changed a lot, because it’s impossible to change your game style. 

“But for sure she was more solid than me and making much less mistakes, so was putting pressure with that. Usually I’m able to push it back, or put pressure on myself, but today I just made too many mistakes.”

From her buggy-whip forehand and mental and physical intensity to her domination at Roland Garros, where she has won four of her five grand slam titles, Swiatek has often been likened to her hero, Rafael Nadal. Over the course of a difficult summer, another point of comparison has become discernible. Just as Nadal used to dominate the clay-court season only to find the tank depleted later in the season, so Swiatek – crowned champion in Madrid, Rome and Paris before suffering unexpected defeats to Yulia Putintseva at Wimbledon and Qinwen Zheng at the Olympics – appears to be paying the price for a successful summer on the red dirt. 

Has the Pole hit the wall? Despite her improvement in the second set, this was a startlingly poor display by her standards. Swiatek’s serve, the mainstay of her progress as she advanced to the last eight without dropping a set, largely deserted her, the 23-year-old winning just 56% of points behind her first delivery. By the end of the night, she had committed 41 unforced errors – the same number she made in the opening round against Kamilla Rakhimova, with the crucial difference being that here she managed only a dozen winners, 18 fewer than she conjured against the Russian. It was, as Swiatek acknowledged, too much to overcome.

“I was telling myself that I can still play well from the baseline and I’ve had many tournaments when I didn’t serve well and I managed to win anyway,” said Swiatek. “But I probably didn’t find the right solution, because I couldn’t push on my serve. Also, I wasn’t that solid from the baseline to have a backup like that. You’re not going to win if you make so many mistakes.”

Not against Pegula, at any rate; not with the American in this form. Pegula will now face Karolina Muchova, who underwent wrist surgery in February but returned to the semi-finals for a second straight year with a 6-1, 6-4 win over Beatriz Haddad Maia. Like Pegula, the 28-year-old Czech, unseeded but with talent in abundance, has yet to drop a set. It will be far from straightforward, but it is an opportunity: three weeks ago in Cincinnati, Pegula won the first career meeting between the pair in three sets. A maiden grand slam final could arrive a lot quicker for Pegula than her first semi-final did. 

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The former champion, all but one of whose five grand slam titles have come at Roland Garros, will face Jessica Pegula for a place in the semi-finals on Wednesday night, just as she did in 2022. Swiatek ran out a 6-3, 7-6 (7-4) winner that day – an encouraging precedent from her perspective, no doubt, but one unlikely to have any bearing on the rematch, given that she barely recalls it.

“I don’t remember a lot,” said Swiatek. “I remember it was the first match in 2022 where I felt like the ball is kind of listening to me a little bit more, and that’s the only thing. I don’t remember [the] specifics of how that match went, I don’t even remember the score, so I can’t really say a lot. I haven’t watched this game [since], so that’s why probably.”

There is another reason why Swiatek’s memory of the fortnight is based more on impressions than details. Having arrived in New York that year complaining that the balls were too light to control, her title-winning run was a largely pragmatic, attritional affair rather than a Carlos Alcaraz-style highlights reel. The satisfaction she felt afterwards owed more to the outcome than the experience.

“I wouldn’t say I played my best game or whatever that year, so it was a big surprise for me that I could win this tournament, because I felt like I kind of won it ugly,” said Swiatek after advancing to the quarter-finals with a far from unsightly 6-4, 6-1 victory over Liudmila Samsonova.

“That’s why I probably [don’t remember]. But I was fighting every match for every ball, and my defence was pretty great. So on the other hand, I understand why I won this tournament.”

Should she repeat that achievement on Saturday, Swiatek is likely to recall her latest campaign in New York with greater clarity. Since a shaky opening match against Kamilla Rakhimova, a lucky loser who came within a whisker of forcing a third set, the former champion has progressed through the upper half of the draw with calm authority, brushing aside Ena Shibahara, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Samsonova in straight sets. This time, though, her success has been built less on an ability to scrap and retrieve, and more on the excellence of her vastly improved service.

That might seem an unlikely claim to make about a player more noted for her dominant play off the ground and wing-heeled athleticism. The evidence, however, is compelling. Swiatek remains unbroken across her past three matches. No player left in the draw has won more service games, and among that cohort of survivors only Qinwen Zheng – dismissed 6-1, 6-2 by Aryna Sabalenka in Tuesday’s night session – had claimed more points behind her first delivery going into the quarter-finals (80% to 79%). On second serve, meanwhile, Swiatek leads the field with a 64% success rate.

Those statistics are indicative of the work the 23-year-old has put in behind the scenes to produce a smoother and more compact motion, the fruits of which are evident in the five titles she has won this season, including a fourth in five years at Roland Garros. Yet having a good serve and knowing what to do with it are two very different things.

A service-dominated first set against the 16th-seeded Samsonova showcased Swiatek’s growing variety and tactical nous with ball in hand. While touching speeds of up to 115mph, the Pole also leavened the mix with regular changes of pace and direction. That was never more evident than when, eschewing her natural tendency to pull the opponent wide in the advantage court, she closed out two consecutive first-set services games with devastatingly accurate serves down the centre line. The deft manner in which Swiatek navigated such moments laid the foundations for a victory that, once she broke for the first time to claim the set, assumed an air of inevitably.

 “At the beginning I felt like we were playing kind of men’s style, just holding our serves,” Swiatek told Rennae Stubbs on court afterwards. “But I knew that if I kept pushing I would get some chances to break Mila. That happened in the last game of the first set, and I’m happy that I was there to close it. In the second set I was leading, and I just wanted to keep being focused, not let my mind drift off.”

Samsonova may lack the grand slam pedigree of Jelena Ostapenko, the former French Open champion who defeated Swiatek in the fourth round last year, but the Russian is not without the tools to discomfit Swiatek on a fast hard court. Taking a leaf out of the Ostapenko playbook, she did all she could to rush the top seed with her flat, powerful groundstrokes and heavy serve, and in the fifth game she threatened to make inroads, some mighty hitting bringing up 0-30 on Swiatek’s serve. The Pole refused to be flustered, however, setting up her forehand with a pair of solid first serves.

It was ideal preparation for facing Pegula, another clean, flat ball-striker. Swiatek is in no danger of becoming a servebot just yet, but the ability to win the occasional free point on serve will do her no harm as she seeks a seventh win over the 30-year-old American in what will be their 10th meeting. Notably, all three of Pegula’s wins have come on hard courts, although the pair have not played since last November’s showdown at the WTA Finals in Cancún, where she was on the wrong end of a 6-1, 6-0 drubbing.

Seeded sixth at Flushing Meadows, Pegula has likewise made improvements to her game since that meeting. Her outstanding form over the North American hard-court swing, which has brought a successful defence of her Canadian Open title and a final appearance in Cincinnati, has seen her defeated just once in her past 14 matches, and her impressive 6-4, 6-2 win over Diana Shnaider in the previous round suggests Swiatek will have her work cut out.

“I feel like my movement has really improved, which has really helped me stay in a lot of these points and these sets and these games and be super consistent,” said Pegula. “I think I’ve been serving pretty well. Even if it’s not working, I’ve been getting myself out of service games by serving smart or serving well in big moments.”

On Wednesday night, the American can expect to see those skills mirrored at the opposite end of the court. Like Swiatek, she has yet to drop a set; unlike Swiatek, she has failed to advance beyond a grand slam quarter-final in six previous attempts. Two of those defeats came at the hands of the Pole, and her return game will need to be at its best if she is to alter that narrative. We are unlikely to see a repeat of the 13 breaks the players shared in their quarter-final meeting two years ago.

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The 26-year-old Belarusian completed an outstanding week’s work in Cincinnati with a straight-sets victory over Jessica Pegula, snapping the sixth-seeded American’s nine-match winning run with a performance of withering power and unwavering self-belief. With a week to go until the US Open, a first WTA 1000 title on hard courts in four years marks a timely resurgence for the Australian Open champion, who had not won a title since securing her second grand slam crown at Melbourne Park in January.

Sabalenka, who lost to Mirra Andreeva in the French Open quarter-finals and went on to miss Wimbledon and the Olympics with a shoulder injury, has suffered unexpected losses to Marie Bouzkova and Amanda Anisimova since returning to the fray earlier this month. But her determination to recapture her best form has been evident in Cincinnati, where she has revelled in the quick, slick playing conditions, emulating Vera Zvonareva and Ashleigh Barty by becoming only the third woman to win the title without dropping a set.

That confidence-boosting run included an emphatic semi-final win over Iga Swiatek – only her fourth in a dozen meetings with the Polish world No 1 – and she had far too much in reserve for Pegula, whose contrastingly arduous route to the final included three-set victories over Karolina Muchova, Leylah Fernandez and Paula Badosa.

“I would say that I’m really playing great tennis,” said Sabalenka after a 6-3, 7-5 victory that will encourage her to believe she can take the final step at Flushing Meadows, where she was beaten by Coco Gauff in last year’s final. “Probably not the best tennis I can play, but I’m definitely getting there, and with every match I play I’m feeling better and better. Hopefully at the US Open I can keep building the level.”

If Sabalenka’s form in Ohio has invited comparisons with this year’s title run at Melbourne Park, where she likewise triumphed without dropping a set, then the mental strength she demonstrated in handling her sole moment of crisis against Pegula harked back to her 2023 Australian Open win, when she definitively laid to rest doubts about her big-match temperament.

As Sabalenka stepped up to serve for the championship at 5-4 in the second set, she had dropped the princely sum of just four points on serve in the entire match. But a flurry of forehand errors from the Belarusian threw Pegula an unlikely lifeline, and suddenly there was a ripple of excitement among the previously subdued home crowd. The parallel with Sabalenka’s win over Swiatek, where she needed 10 match points to get over the line, was inescapable. This time, though, there would be no late drama: Sabalenka’s forehand remained shaky, but her will held firm.

“I couldn’t be happier with the level, but I was pushed a lot by my opponent,” said Sabalenka. “I think I just played really great tennis and I was focused. I wouldn’t allow those negative emotions [to] come into my head, and I was trying to stay really calm on the court and in control.

“I think that’s why, even though people were breaking my serve [late in matches], I was able to stay focused and break them back.”

After a wretched summer, both players will head to New York with renewed optimism. While Sabalenka reclaims the No 2 ranking she temporarily relinquished to Gauff after Roland Garros, Pegula can reflect with satisfaction on a surge that has brought a third WTA 1000 crown in Toronto as well as a fifth final at this level. It has been a welcome return to form for the 30-year-old, who missed the French Open with injury and suffered second-round losses at the Australian Open, Roland Garros and the Olympics.

Rosie Casals and Serena Williams are the only other women to have made the Canadian Open and Cincinnati finals in the same year, and it was Williams whom Pegula referenced in her on-court speech afterwards, telling Sabalenka – who hit 10 aces and won 91% of her first-serve points – “It felt like Serena today, with the way you were serving; I may have wanted Serena instead of Aryna.”

“She’s tough when she’s playing [so well], especially on these fast courts,” Pegula later elaborated. “It’s hard to draw out the points and get her moving when she’s playing first-strike tennis really well and not making a lot of errors either. So kudos to her for this whole week, she’s played some really incredible tennis.

“But I’m really proud of myself for the last couple of weeks, for the level I’ve been able to display, playing a lot of matches, and I think proving to myself that I can win a lot of matches in a row and be able to handle a lot of different challenges with the conditions and different cities and courts.”

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Pegula, the world No 4, reached the biggest final of her career at the season-ending WTA Finals in November, but struggled to build on that success over the Australian summer, losing to Britain’s Katie Boulter at the United Cup before withdrawing from the semi-finals of the Adelaide International with a gastrointestinal illness. 

A shock second-round loss to Clara Burel followed at the Australian Open, where Pegula was seeded fifth, and she subsequently withdrew from the women’s doubles alongside Coco Gauff. Days later, the 29-year-old informed Witt of her decision to end a five-year partnership during which she reached a career-high ranking of No 3.

“It was a total surprise to me,” Witt, 50, told tennis.com. “Never saw it coming.”

While Pegula has yet to comment on the split publicly, the timing of the decision could be significant in terms of where she goes from here. The American recently pulled out of the forthcoming Middle East swing with a neck injury, and her next scheduled appearance is at the San Diego Open at the end of this month. That leaves a period of almost a month to begin working with a new coach ahead of the US hard-court swing, which begins in earnest on 6 March in Indian Wells.

Witt spent 11 years working with Venus Williams before joining forces with Pegula in 2019. In 2022, he was named WTA coach of the year after guiding Pegula to the last eight at three of the four majors. She also won a maiden WTA 1000 title in Guadalajara, rising from 18th in the world to third as she qualified for the WTA Finals for the first time. 

Witt expressed disappointment at the unexpected conclusion of the relationship, but looked forward to making a prompt return to the tour. 

“We’ve had a great friendship for five years, so it’s very tough,” said Witt. “I really value my relationship with my player just as much as I love coaching. It’s a tough business. I’ve been pretty lucky that I’ve only been with two players the last 15 years.

“Me as a coach, I go into it thinking I’m going to try to get the best out the player that I’m working with. I think we’ve done that.  

“Our goals were to win a grand slam. Obviously, that was cut short, didn’t get to accomplish that, but I think everything else has been awesome.

“I love coaching, I love being out on the tour, helping someone – whether that’s a male or a female. I’m looking for the next challenge, the next person that wants to work hard, set goals, grow and succeed.”

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While that loss ended Swiatek’s 75-week reign at No 1, ushering Arnya Sabalenka to the top of the rankings for the first time, it was also something of a blessing in disguise for the Pole, allaying the pressure and expectation surrounding her after the glories of last year, when she won at Roland Garros and Flushing Meadows and compiled a 37-match winning streak. For the first time in 17 months, the 22-year-old was not the WTA player with the biggest target on her back. 

With the shackles cast off, Swiatek returned to the practice court with renewed zeal, sharpening her game technically and tactically. When she subsequently won in Beijing, the four-time grand slam champion spoke of her relief at once again being able to play with freedom, unencumbered by the baggage that goes with being No 1. Swiatek could once more look to the future with optimism.

On Monday night in Cancún, that future arrived. With a thumping 6-1, 6-0 victory over Jessica Pegula, Swiatek claimed a maiden WTA Finals crown and returned to the top of the rankings, clinching year-end No 1 for the second year in a row. It was the most one-sided final in the 51-year history of the season-ending showpiece and also the most dominant title run, the Pole conceding just 20 games across her five matches, which included a season-defining win over Sabalenka in the last four.

“It’s weird, because sometimes things in life come when you don’t expect them, and actually this is that kind of situation,” said Swiatek, whose tour-leading sixth title of the season – and 17th in all – means she will begin next year on an 11-match winning streak. 

“After the US Open, I was able to reset and think about what actually makes me a better player. I stopped thinking about rankings and points, and I started to feel a little bit more free on court. 

“So for sure, these past tournaments showed me that this is the right way to go, and I guess rankings and points come after that. I’m just really proud of myself that I can finish the year as world No 1.”

As Swiatek’s excellence drained the contest of suspense, Pegula endured the toughest of nights. Given the New Yorker’s form, and her victories over Swiatek this year at the United Cup and the Canadian Open, where she went on to win the second WTA 1000 title of her career, the match was widely expected to be a tight affair; instead, it was a rout more in line with her 6-3, 6-0 defeat to Swiatek in February’s Qatar Open final.

“I think it was a great week, looking at all [of it],” said Pegula, who ends the season ranked fifth, two spots below her career best. “There’s a lot more positives than negatives. Really, the only negative was today. But I’d much rather lose in the final against the No 1 player than go out early, like I did last year [when she lost all six of her matches in singles and doubles]. So to me it’s still an improvement, and I’m just trying to look at the positives of the entire year.”

She will not want for choice in that regard. The 29-year-old American has played some wonderful tennis this season, not least in Cancún, where her calm disposition, flawless technique and tactical nous have come into their own. Making light of the squally conditions and unpredictable playing surface, she advanced to the biggest final of her career without dropping a set, claiming a notable win over Sabalenka along the way as well as defeating Elena Rybakina, Maria Sakkari and, in the semi-finals, her close friend and doubles partner Coco Gauff.

In Swiatek, though, Pegula faced an opponent likewise at the top of her game and, on the day, superior in every department. A performance reminiscent of her victory over Lidumila Samsonova in the China Open final saw Swiatek struck a perfect balance between aggression and consistency, giving nothing away while dominating the baseline exchanges with her heavy, whipped forehand and extraordinary movement.

Time and again Pegula found herself scurrying furiously but fruitlessly into the corners, her misery compounded by the Pole’s immaculate serving and forceful returns. The New Yorker’s dismal evening was summed up midway through the second set, when she bounced her racket in frustration only for it to rebound up off the court and hit her in the face, knocking off her visor.

As Swiatek won 82% of her first serve points and made just seven unforced errors, Pegula’s best hope seemed to lie in the distant prospect of the Pole being weighed down by thoughts of reclaiming No 1. But the court and the conditions have kept all the players on their toes this past week, and although the final was played in brilliant sunshine, Swiatek’s focus remained unwavering.

“I would say [thoughts of the No 1 ranking] played a lot [on my mind] in the US Open and tournaments before,” admitted Swiatek. “But I learned my lesson, and this time I didn’t want it to have an impact on me. 

“It’s hard not to think about stuff like that, but when I went on court, I knew I had to focus on different things. The conditions here, which were kind of tricky, helped me to focus just on my footwork, my shots, and that kept me busy from thinking about all of that. 

“Today was like the highlight of this mentality, just being narrow with your head, only thinking about the right stuff.” 

The sobering reality for Swiatek’s rivals is that, for all her brilliance last season, she won one more match in 2023 than she did last year. Once again on top of the world, she remains the woman to beat. 

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On another windswept, rain-lashed night in Cancún, the 29-year-old American stormed into the biggest final of her career, a 6-2, 6-1 demolition of Coco Gauff, her close friend and doubles partner, maintaining her flawless record at what is, by common consent, the most challenging edition of the season finale since its inception more than half a century ago.

The sternest of challenges awaits the winner of the second semi-final between Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek, which was held overnight with the Pole leading 2-1 after the latest tropical deluge took hold. While all around her have struggled to contend with the atrocious weather conditions and unpredictable temporary playing surface during a chaotic week in the Caribbean, Pegula has been a model of serenity and composure. 

Yet to be taken to a decider in four outings, and still unbeaten in the 51 matches in which she has won the opening set this season, the imperturbable American stands within touching distance of a notable milestone. A straight-sets victory in the final, which has now been pushed back to Monday, would see Pegula join Serena Williams as only the second woman in history to claim the title without conceding a set. The mere fact that she has a chance to match that milestone is a measure of how spectacularly she has turned things around since last year’s catastrophic showing in Texas.

“I did a good of resetting before I came here,” said Pegula in the aftermath of her 59-minute win. “I think I improved that a lot compared to last year, where it was a new experience for me, and I wasn’t sure what I was doing or how I was playing. I’m glad I’m turning the tables this year. 

“It’s tough being 0 and 6 and then coming here, and being like, ‘Well, I could go 0 and 6 again.’ I mean, it was a possibility. It’s there, in the back of your mind, and it takes a lot of mental strength to battle through that.”

Together with her clean, powerful ball-striking and formidable consistency, Pegula’s ability to adapt to circumstance, both tactically and mentally, has long been a signature characteristic. That quality has been firmly in evidence in Cancún, and against Gauff she once again made light of the challenging conditions, serving with precision and authority, drilling her returns from inside the baseline, and volleying with aplomb.

“I’m still undefeated in Mexico, which is crazy to think of,” said Pegula, who won the first of her two WTA 1000 titles in Guadalajara last year. “I’m not really sure why. I like the conditions, I think it reminds me of where I’m from in the south of Florida. I’m close to Miami, so it’s very similar – it’s humid, it’s hot, it’s windy, it’s rainy sometimes, especially this time of year. 

“So maybe it just feels very familiar to me and that’s why I like it. I think the courts suit my game, too. They’re not too fast, but they’re a little slick, a little faster, which I like too. I love tacos, margueritas, so maybe that helps.”

For Gauff, it was the most sobering of nights. The 19-year-old has worked so hard to shore up her occasionally wayward forehand and improve the reliability of her second serve, yet there are few sterner tests of technique and temperament than the kind of blustery, wet conditions that have descended on Cancún this week. Even so, it would be foolhardy to attach any long-term significance to her difficulties. Less than two months after her sensational US Open triumph, Gauff’s trajectory remains unrelentingly upward.

“I think she was playing well with the wind and I wasn’t,” said Gauff. “She was timing the ball well and getting that extra ball back in the court, and I think I made a lot of errors. But overall, I’m really happy – not with today necessarily, but with the whole season.”

Come what may in Monday’s final, Pegula will leave Mexico with a similar sense of satisfaction. Despite drawing a blank in the six grand slam quarter-finals she has contested since 2021, the late-blooming New Yorker continues to improve, and there is a clear sense that she has turned a corner this week. There is surely more to come.

“It’s probably my biggest final ever,” said Pegula after winning her seventh match in a row against top-10 opposition, a run that includes victories over Swiatek and, for the first time in three years, Sabalenka.

“I know I haven’t made it deeper in the grand slams, for a semis or finals, but to get through here in such a tough field is going to give me a lot of confidence for next year. 

“I think I’ve been able to handle all the opponents that I’ve faced really well, even in the conditions and stuff like that, so it should give me a lot of confidence. It’s my biggest win.”

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At the turn of the year, when Pegula demolished Iga Swiatek at the United Cup to claim the biggest win of her career, it felt like a seminal moment for the New Yorker. A cornerstone of the US team that went on to win the inaugural mixed team event, Pegula looked a shoo-in to advance beyond the last eight of a major for the first time at the ensuing Australian Open. 

Things did not quite work out that way, the American falling in the quarter-finals at Melbourne Park for a third successive year. For now, the last eight remains her grand slam ceiling. Yet, for a player with a game to beat the best, that record feels ever more anomalous. 

Pegula’s landmark win over Swiatek was no fluke. She scored another success against the Pole this autumn in Cincinnati, going on to win the second WTA 1000 title of her career, and on Tuesday evening in Cancún the 29-year-old offered another powerful reminder of her quality, snapping a four-match losing streak against Aryna Sabalenka, the Belarusian world No 1, to make the last four at the WTA Finals for the first time.

It was a milestone victory for Pegula, who failed to claim a win in six singles and doubles matches on her maiden appearance at the season-ending jamboree last year in Fort Worth. With an assured 6-4, 6-3 win, she not only ended a three-year barren spell against Sabalenka but also became the fourth American woman this century to notch up three wins against the No 1 player in the world in the same season, joining Serena Williams, Lindsay Davenport and Jennifer Capriati. 

Last October, when asked about her prospects of winning a grand slam title after her maiden WTA 1000 title in Guadalajara, Pegula jokingly alluded to her quarter-final defeats against Swiatek at Roland Garros and the US Open. “As long as I don’t play Iga in the quarters, hopefully I’ll get there,” quipped the American. It was a throwaway comment and yet, given the largely one-sided nature of those defeats, there was more than a hint of gallows humour. Things are different now, though; once again, a big title feels within reach for Pegula.

“Even though I was a top player last year, I think I feel more comfortable playing [the world No 1] this year, I feel more confident,” she said. “I don’t think it feels such a big deal, and maybe that’s just because I’ve experienced it longer. 

“I think last year, when I became top five, I felt maybe I psyched myself out a little bit. Not a lot, but just a little bit. You have a couple of thoughts in your head, if you really belong at that level. I was always good at beating everyone below me but it’s like, now you have to beat the one or two before you, and I think you put bigger emphasis on that. 

“I think this year I’ve just not really cared, and I’ve just had more confidence in those matches. That’s why I think I’ve had some better top wins this year as far as beating No 1 players in the world, or [No] 2 or whatever it is – and in big moments too, like here, in Montreal and stuff like that. So I think that’s where I feel I’ve improved a little bit.”

For Sabalenka, whose efforts were undermined by 33 unforced errors, the defeat was not only a step backwards after Sunday’s thumping win over Maria Sakkari, but also a blow to her hopes of keeping Swiatek at bay in the race to claim the year-end No 1 ranking. A perfect group record would have consigned the Pole to second spot; instead, Sabalenka will now square off against Elena Rybakina, who claimed a 6-0, 6-7 (4-7), 7-6 (7-2) win over Maria Sakkari, with a semi-final place on the line for both women. The Belarusian has led criticism of the temporary playing surface and, while she hailed the quality of Pegula’s performance, she once again made her unhappiness with the conditions plain. 

“I think this court fits her perfectly,” said Sabalenka. “The bounce is super low and I think she feels much more comfortable in these conditions. On this court, it’s like leather, you never know what’s going to happen, if the bounce will help you or play against you. 

“I guess today was the day when it didn’t work well for me, but it’s OK. I still have a chance to pass the group, so I’m trying to stay strong and motivated.”

Sabalenka struggled to bring her haymaker forehand to bear in the early stages, with 11 of her 21 unforced errors in the first set coming off that wing. Pegula showed notable boldness, taking her returns on the rise, serving with consistency and penetration, and going toe-to-toe with the Australian Open champion in the baseline exchanges. Sabalenka roused herself late in both sets, narrowly failing to fight back from 5-2 down in the first and saving six match points in the second. 

In truth, though, once Pegula had sealed the opener, the outcome felt almost inevitable: she is now unbeaten in 49 matches after winning the first set this season, and her steadiness of mind and stroke, and flat, penetrative ball-striking, seem tailor-made for the conditions. Pegula once again looks like she will take some stopping. 

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On the eve of her opening match against Maria Sakkari, the Belarusian world No 1 led a chorus of disapproval over the tournament’s chaotic organisation, calling on the governing body of the women’s game to “do a better job” after the stadium court was barely laid in time for the players to complete a short practice on it.  

In Sakkari, Sabalenka appeared to find an outlet for her frustration, demolishing the Greek eighth seed 6-0, 6-1 with a ruthless, relentless performance that spoke volumes for her determination to retain the top ranking ahead of the chasing Iga Swiatek. 

But a statement victory did not mean the 25-year-old had nothing left to say, and afterwards Sabalenka doubled down on her criticism of the WTA.

“It’s another level of disrespect from the WTA for the players, because sometimes I don’t even feel safe to move on this court,” said Sabalenka. “That’s not the level I expect from the WTA Finals. 

“I mean, thank you for this challenge I’m facing right now, to kind of like learn how to adapt quick to the conditions,” she added caustically. “Thank you for that. But this is not something I expect from such a high-level tournament. 

“I’m really happy that I’m able to ignore all this and do everything I can to win every point I play.”

Sabalenka certainly did that, battling to an early break and then fending off four break points on her own serve to establish a lead that she went on to protect with tigerish ferocity. Despite an awkward wind and a quick, high-bouncing playing surface, many of the early rallies were well contested. But Sabalenka went about her business with unwavering intensity, immediately extinguishing the few opportunities her opponent was able to create, and as game after game rolled by it was impossible not to feel sympathy for Sakkari, who became visibly distraught in the latter stages.

“I was not feeling my game, not feeling comfortable out there,” said the 28-year-old, who qualified for the eight-woman event as the first alternate following Karolina Muchova’s withdrawal with a wrist injury. 

“Just a very, very bad day in the office. Hopefully it’s going to be better for Tuesday [when she faces Jessica Pegula].”

While Sakkari was left to lick her wounds, Sabalenka took to social media to elaborate on her concerns about the event’s organisation.

“I am very disappointed with the WTA and the experience so far at the WTA Finals,” the top seed wrote on Instagram. “As I said in my press conference tonight, as a player I feel disrespected by the WTA. I think most of us do. This is not the level of organisation we expect for the finals.

“To be honest, I don’t feel safe moving on this court a lot of the time, the bounce is not consistent at all, and we weren’t able to practise on this court until yesterday for the first time. It’s just not acceptable to me with so much on the line and so much at stake.”

A strong run in Bacalar Group would significantly bolster Sabalenka’s prospects of retaining the top ranking she inherited from Swiatek after the US Open. With 125 points on offer for each match played, and a further 125 allotted for each group stage win, three group victories would guarantee Sabalenka the coveted year-end No 1 ranking, bolstering her existing 630-point lead by 875 points to make a total of 1,505, even if she lost in the semi-finals. With an undefeated title win worth 1,500 points, Swiatek would be powerless to overtake her. 

Two group wins combined with a run to the final would also be enough for Sabalenka, giving her 950 points to extend her overall lead to 1,580 points – again, more than her Polish rival could amass even in a best-case scenario.

In the opening match of Bacalar Group, Pegula saw off Elena Rybakina, the fourth seed, in straight sets. Rybakina served for the opening set at 5-3 only for the American to break back before reeling off 10 of the final 12 games.

“I think she made maybe a couple of loose points, and I was able to kind of jump on it and find my momentum,” Pegula, seeded fifth, said of the turnaround. “I think I started serving a lot better after that, and was able to get a read on her serve and start finding my rhythm.”

Pegula refused to be drawn into a debate about the event’s organisation, simply remarking that the stadium court was “not good” while the 11th-hour decision to stage the finals in Cancún, announced last month, meant there was “no time to fix anything”. The WTA Tour addressed Sabalenka’s criticisms in a statement, however, insisting the court met the governing body’s performance standards.

“We’re pleased to host the WTA Finals in Cancún for the first time and worked hard to construct a stadium where the world’s top eight women’s tennis players and doubles teams compete head-to-head,” read the statement. “The team has worked diligently on an expedited timeline amid weather challenges to ensure the stadium and court meet our strict performance standards.”   

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Given the blustery conditions in the Mexican resort city of Cancún, Jabeur’s quick hands and exquisite feel may well put her among the title favourites. To most observers, however, the figure that really matters is No 1. That is the position Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek will dispute at the final stop on this season’s WTA Tour, where the champion will pocket up to 1,500 points – enough to either bridge or expand the 630-point gap between the two best players on the planet.

For the past seven weeks, bragging rights in the race to claim the year-end No 1 ranking have belonged to Sabalenka, who will be hoping to end the year in the same triumphant vein she began it when she stormed to a maiden grand slam title at the Australian Open. The mighty Belarusian, the first woman since Serena Williams in 2016 to reach the semi-finals or better at all four majors in the same calendar year, realised a lifelong ambition at last month’s US Open, rising to top spot for the first time despite losing to Coco Gauff in the final. The magnitude of that achievement is not lost on the 25-year-old, but neither has it gone to her head. 

“I wish I had known earlier that I can play that good,” quipped Sabalenka on the eve of her opener against Sakkari. “It’s just [been a] super great season, I think the best season in my life so far.

“[But] I think ranking, it’s just ranking, you know? It’s not like I go on court right now and everyone will be, ‘OK, I’m not playing, you’re No 1, good luck in the next round.’ It’s not changing anything. I still need to work hard. I still need to bring my best tennis on court. I think I even need to work more, because right now I feel like I’m a target for everyone.”

The latter sentiment is one Swiatek will recognise only too well. The Pole spoke of the pressures of playing with a target on her back as long ago as March, long before a fourth-round defeat to Jelena Ostapenko at Flushing Meadows drew a line under her 75-week reign at No 1. Swiatek reiterated that stance earlier this month at the China Open, her only tournament since, expressing her relief at being able to return to the practice court unencumbered by the “baggage” that goes with the top ranking. She certainly had the air of a player liberated, showcasing some intriguing technical and tactical improvements as she claimed her first WTA 1000 title of the season. 

That newfound adaptability, evident in Beijing in a relentless display of net-rushing against Sara Sorribes Tormo, and a flawless exhibition of controlled aggression in the final against Liudmila Samsonova, bodes well for Cancún, where the combination of swirling wind and a hastily-laid playing surface that has allowed scant practice time will be challenging for all the players. The need for Swiatek to tailor her game accordingly will be particularly acute given that she starts against Marketa Vondrousova, the wily Czech southpaw who outfoxed Jabeur at Wimbledon to become the first unseeded women’s champion in history. Not given to complacency, the French Open champion will be taking nothing for granted.

“You can always say the first two seeds are going to be the favourites, or the first seed,” said Swiatek, who has also been drawn alongside Gauff and Jabeur in Chetumal Group. “But honestly, so many things can happen this week. Overall, in any tennis tournament, I stopped thinking that way. I think any one of us can win this tournament. 

“I felt like [last year, when Swiatek compiled a 37-match winning streak and won Roland Garros and the US Open] was just kind of ridiculous, because people got used to me winning. It’s not like it’s going to happen all the time. So I think this season was kind of more normal, I would say, like most of the seasons we play, for even the top players.  

“The main thing I want to avoid is forgetting that this was also a good season and I still won some great tournaments. 

“Expectations from the outside, it was the thing that really sometimes stopped me this season. I’m going to work on not letting it stop me this time.”

In truth, little has stopped the 22-year-old this season. While Sabalenka has been the dominant force at the majors – although not in Paris, where Swiatek was crowned champion for the third time in four years – the Pole has won five titles and 63 matches, more than any of her peers. Samsonova, against whom Swiatek did not make a single unforced error in the Beijing final, caused quite a stir when she recently branded her rival “the real No 1”, yet it was easy to see what the Russian meant. Sabalenka’s superior grand slam record this season unquestionably makes her the rightful No 1 and yet, in the hard currency of trophies and victories, Swiatek has been the more successful player. 

If Sabalenka is to alter that skewed perception, she will need to combine a strong showing in Bacalar Group with a repeat of last year’s run to the final. Should she collect two wins from a group that includes Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula and Sakkari and then advance to the final, Swiatek will be powerless to stop her. Anything less, and the Pole will be in charge of her own destiny, although she would still probably need to win the title with an unblemished group record.

Yet, if the tournament unfolds along similar lines to recent editions, the battle for No 1 could yet be overshadowed. Should range and adaptability prove the determining factors, Jabeur and Vondrousova could emerge as disruptors-in-chief. With no previous winners in the field, either woman would be a fitting addition to a roster of left-field champions that includes Caroline Wozniacki, Elina Svitolina, Garbiñe Muguruza and Caroline Garcia. 

Victory for Jabeur would mark a fairy-tale conclusion to a chequered season that has included knee surgery and a heart-breaking defeat in the Wimbledon final for the second successive year. Neither a first French Open quarter-final nor title wins in Charleston and Ningbo – the latter her first on hard courts – have brought solace in the face of a loss that the Tunisian has described as the most painful of her career. If there has been an upside, it is that she has acquired a knack of adjusting to circumstance. 

“I learned to just adapt to everything,” said Jabeur, who opens against Gauff on Monday. “As a tennis player, I always try to adapt and not complain about a lot of things. Hopefully it will help me to play better. Definitely I will figure out how to play my best tennis in the wind.”

Vondrousova, whose quarter-final run at the US Open underlined how impressively she has adapted to life as a grand slam winner, will likewise look to make the most of her guile and tactical intelligence.

“I’m more crafty,” said the 24-year-old. “I don’t have as much power as other girls, maybe. I feel like I’m the smallest here, too. It’s a bit tough sometimes.  

“Since I was small, I was always the smallest, so I had to find ways. I feel like my lefty [style] is also a bit annoying for other players. That’s what I’m trying to do, just to be annoying.”

Gauff, meanwhile, is hopeful that an upbringing in the swirling winds of Delray Beach, Florida will work to her advantage as she seeks to reproduce the winning blend of defence and attack that earned her the US Open title.

“I will need to adjust because the wind is quite heavy,” said the 19-year-old, who lost all through of her group matches in straight sets last year in Fort Worth. “For the past few days, when I’ve been trying to practice here, it’s been really tough.

“For sure, I’m going to stick to my game. I’m going to try to still play aggressive. Of course, the serve is a weapon, so I’ll try to do my best to adjust.”

With Swiatek the favourite, adjustment is likely to be the watchword in Chetumal Group, potentially giving Jabeur or Vondrousova a slight edge. Conversely, Bacalar Group will be shaped by a collision of irresistible forces, in the shape of Sabalenka and Rybakina, and immovable objects, in the form of Pegula and Sakkari. A quarter-final loss to Rybakina in Beijing notwithstanding, a Sabalenka wobble would be a major surprise. The wider outlook is harder to predict. Pegula has little to lose after drawing a blank on her debut in Fort Worth last year, while Rybakina, the fourth seed and former Wimbledon champion, has admitted to struggling with the wind in practice. 

That leaves Sakkari, in as an alternate following the withdrawal of Karolina Muchova with a wrist injury, as a potential fly in the ointment for the trio of top-five players with whom she finds herself bracketed. A semi-finalist in each of her two previous appearances at the finals, the Greek world No 9 not only has the pedigree to get out of the group but also has a deep affinity for the host country, which she has come to see as a home for home. That feelgood factor, underlined by last month’s title win in Guadalajara, her first at WTA 1000 level, deepens the suspicion that Sakkari, effectively playing with house money, could emerge as the surprise package of the group.

“I just feel like the crowd loves me here, and I love them too,” said Sakkari. “I’ve said it many times: there’s a special connection. This week is like a celebration for me. I’m grateful to be here, to be competing again in the finals, because three times in a row is I think a great achievement.  

“I’m just going to go out there and enjoy. It would be amazing to win the whole thing, that’s my ultimate goal, of course, but I don’t want to think of winning or losing. I just want to feel like, ‘You know what, I was given that great opportunity’ – and make the most out of it.”

Semi-finals: Swiatek to defeat Sakkari; Jabeur to defeat Sabalenka.

Final: Swiatek to beat Jabeur.

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