It marks a miserable conclusion to an outstanding season for the 27-year-old, who made her first grand slam final at the French Open this summer, and backed up that landmark run by reaching a maiden WTA 1000 final in Cincinnati, a result that propelled her into the world’s top 10 for the first time.

“I am heartbroken to announce that I will miss my first WTA Finals in Cancun,” Muchova wrote on Instagram. “Together with the team and doctors we tried everything till the last moments to resolve my wrist injury.

“Unfortunately, the time needed for the recovery is longer than we would’ve hoped for and therefore I had to make this unpleasant decision. I greatly appreciate the support of all the fans. I will do my best to be back in 2024 and get another chance to be part of the WTA Finals.”

In an ironic twist, Muchova’s place in the eight-woman field for the WTA Finals will be filled by Maria Sakkari – the very player she defeated in the opening round at Roland Garros to kickstart her renascent campaign in earnest. While quarter-final appearances in Dubai and Indian Wells signalled encouraging progress for the Czech as she sought to re-establish herself following a series of injury problems, it was not until Paris that Muchova began to show real signs of regaining the form that propelled her to the Australian Open semi-finals two years ago.

An abdominal tear that necessitated a seven-month layoff interrupted Muchova’s rise following that 2021 run in Melbourne, and she had barely returned the following spring before she rolled an ankle at Roland Garros. In the months that followed she fell out of the top 100, dipping as low as 235 in the world. Yet her talent has never been in doubt, and perhaps the only real surprise of a season that also brought a first US Open semi-final is that big results have not come sooner.

Muchova’s physical frailties go a long way to explaining that, however, and the Czech will be desperate to stay injury-free next season as she seeks to take the final step to becoming a grand slam champion.

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Heralded as a grand slam champion in waiting since the age of 15, Gauff has spent the past few weeks playing the best tennis of her life. Yet she had a sense of foreboding that her date with destiny at the US Open might be interrupted by climate protests, and so it proved.

A set away from repeating last month’s victory over Karolina Muchova in Cincinnati to claim a place in the final of her home grand slam for the first time, the 19-year-old’s nerve was tested by a 49-minute delay as police and security officials struggled to deal with a group of three demonstrators, one of whom had glued his bare feet to the concrete floor.

The demonstrators were roundly jeered by the Arthur Ashe Stadium crowd, but composure and resilience have been the hallmarks of Gauff’s run in New York, and she once again took things in her stride. Taken to a deciding set in three of her first four matches, the world No 6 has surmounted every obstacle in her path, her sure-footedness, self-belief and ability to harness the expectations of an adoring public more remarkable with each round.

So it was again as the American capitalised on a slow start by Muchova to advance to her second major final in 15 months with a 6-4, 7-5 win.

“I had a feeling it was going to happen this tournament,” said Gauff of the extended interruption. “It happened in the French Open, it happened in Wimbledon. So, you know, following the trend, it was definitely going to happen here.

“It is what it is. I think that moments like this are history-defining. I prefer it not to happen in my match, but I wasn’t pissed at the protesters. I know the stadium was, because it interrupted the entertainment. 

“It was done in a peaceful way, so I can’t get too mad at it. Obviously, I don’t want it to happen when I’m winning, up 6-4, 1-0. I wanted the momentum to keep going. But hey, if that’s what they felt they needed to do to get their voices heard, I can’t really get upset at it.”

On and off the court, it was an impressive show of calmness from Gauff. Magnanimity always comes more easily when you win, of course, and when play resumed it can hardly have harmed the teenager’s confidence that she has been virtually invincible in recent weeks after taking the opening set. This was her 15th straight win in such circumstances, a reflection of her burgeoning self-belief as well as the technical and tactical enhancements she has made since bringing on board the coaching expertise of Pere Riba and Brad Gilbert this summer.

For all the recent talk of Gauff’s improved forehand, the focus in the early stages was on the Muchova backhand. Or rather, the puzzling absence thereof. Frequently lauded for her variety, the 27-year-old came up with a seemingly infinite number of ways to miss backhands: driven or sliced, passing shot or rally ball, the Czech simply could not find the court. In the third game alone, Muchova missed four backhands in a row after establishing a 0-30 lead on Gauff’s serve. It was wretched stuff, a far cry from the resurgent form that earned her a place in the French Open final earlier this summer.

Muchova, who wore a protective sleeve on her sore right arm, was hardly helped by the partisan nature of a crowd that had come to see an American victory and an American victory only. When the Czech belatedly won her first game with a bold second serve ace, the stadium greeted her success with stone cold silence. Before long, though, that indifference would give way to anxiety.

One corollary of Muchova’s early difficulties was to create a false impression of Gauff dominance. The teenager’s best moments – a pair of early topspin lobs, a running backhand pass as she served for the set at 5-1 – were all the more notable amid the surrounding dross.  But with the opener in her grasp, three straight forehand errors from Gauff gifted Muchova a lifeline. Duly encouraged, the Czech intensified her examination of Gauff’s weaker side, and as she finally began to find her range, producing some sharp net play, she was rewarded with a series of cheap mistakes from the increasingly exasperated American.

By now it was a comedy of errors, and it was no surprise when Muchova, back on serve at 4-5, suddenly reverted to type, producing another woeful service game to concede the set. The momentum was firmly with Gauff as she began the second set with a confident hold, sending down a flurry of big serves, but the delay that followed saw the contest shift gears.

“I tried to take it as a positive,” said Muchova. “I could talk to my coaches. They were trying to wake me up.

“I tried, [and] after the break I actually played a little bit better. But it was not enough.”

Not so long ago, it might have been. As Muchova began to play with greater freedom and aggression, showcasing her athleticism and dexterity at the net, Gauff began to rush between points. For all her improvement since Wimbledon, where the disappointment of a first-round loss proved the catalyst for a summer that has brought titles in Washington and Cincinnati – and a morale-boosting first win in eight meetings with Iga Swiatek – here was a litmus test of her recent development.

When Gauff out-rallied Muchova to break for 5-3 before bringing up match point with an audacious drop shot, the American looked certain to pass with flying colours. But as Muchova suddenly upped the ante, averting the danger with a daring net raid, the mind reverted to Roland Garros, where the Czech performed an identical act of escapology to deny Aryna Sabalenka a place in the final.

Could lightning strike twice? It certainly looked possible when Muchova levelled at 5-5. But Gauff steadied herself to hold, absorbed the loss of a further four match points as the Czech produced some of her best tennis of the evening, and then came through a 40-shot exchange in which her opponent tried every variation of spin, height and pace in the manual to set up a sixth opportunity. Muchova had nothing left; seconds later, she missed one last backhand and Gauff was home and dry, the youngest American woman to reach a US Open final since Serena Williams in 1999.

Standing between Gauff and a maiden grand slam title is Sabalenka, the incoming world No 1, who survived by the skin of her teeth against Madison Keys, the 17th seed and 2017 finalist.

After an error-strewn start, another dose of semi-final heartbreak looked inevitable for Sabalenka when Keys served for the match at 5-4 in the second set. But the the Belarusian second seed belatedly roused herself, swinging freely for the first time all night as she claimed a love break. Keys needed a pair of big serves to fend off two set points and force a tiebreak, but Sabalenka dominated the shootout and went on to recover from a break down in the decider as she closed out a 0-6, 7-6, (7-1), 7-6 (10-5) victory.

“It was crazy,” said Sabalenka, who prematurely celebrated victory at 7-3 in the match tiebreak before realising she still needed to win three more points.

“I was all over the place. I was just like, ‘What can I do? She’s playing unbelievable, crushing everything.’ I was not able to do anything, I had zero control in the match.

“You just have to keep trying, keep staying there, and keep pushing it. Maybe you’ll be able to turn around this game. Lucky me, somehow, magically, I don’t know how, I was able to turn around this game.”

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Two and a half months ago, when Iga Swiatek romped through the field at the French Open to claim her fourth grand slam title, it was hard to resist suggestions that the sport was in thrall to a hallowed trinity consisting of the Polish world No 1, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina. They had, after all, carved up the previous five majors between them, their three-way rivalry seemingly set to define the women’s game for the foreseeable future. 

Events since have complicated that rather tidy narrative. 

Of the three, Swiatek has enjoyed the most encouraging US Open build-up. Since reaching a maiden grass-court semi-final in Bad Homburg and making the last eight at Wimbledon for the first time, the 22-year-old has won a fourth title of the year on the hard courts of Warsaw, and reached semi-finals in Montreal and Cincinnati. It is a far cry from last year, when Swiatek arrived at Flushing Meadows muttering darkly about the “horrible” balls in use over the US Open series after suffering unexpected defeats to Beatriz Haddad Maia and Madison Keys.

“I’m really happy with my performance in Montreal and Cincinnati,” said Swiatek. “I get more positive vibes, for sure, than before last year’s tournament.”  

The same cannot be said of Rybakina and Sabalenka, whose fortunes since Roland Garros have followed a strangely similar path. Both lost early on the grass courts of Berlin, Rybakina struggling with a viral illness, Sabalenka struggling to heal the mental scars of failing to convert a match point against Karolina Muchova in the French Open semi-finals. Both lost to Ons Jabeur at Wimbledon – where Rybakina was the defending champion – and to Liudmila Samsonova in Montreal. And while both have made WTA 1000 semi-finals on the road to New York, neither has won a tournament since May – a fallow period that has done little to nurture the notion of a big three ahead of the season’s final grand slam. 

In the meantime, the void has been filled by others. At Wimbledon, Marketa Vondrousova crept up on the rails to win her first major. Coco Gauff has been on a tear ever since responding to a first-round loss in SW19 by enlisting the coaching services of Pere Riba and Brad Gilbert, claiming a first WTA 500 title in Washington and a maiden WTA 1000 crown in Cincinnati a fortnight later. Sandwiched between Gauff’s twin triumphs came another fillip for US tennis in the form of Jessica Pegula’s title win in Montreal. 

Elsewhere, Samsonova made back-to-back semi-finals in Washington and Montreal, while Danielle Collins, a former Australian Open finalist, has shown encouraging signs of a resurgence. Muchova, a contender for any title when form and fitness converge, repeated her French Open victory over Sabalenka to reach the Cincinnati final. 

Yet the strength in depth of the women’s game is hardly a new phenomenon and, while it is possible to make a case for several contenders beyond the big three, it is equally legitimate to ask whether a summer of change has really changed anything at all. 

True, Swiatek suffered her first tour-level defeat to Pegula in four years in Montreal, and lost to Gauff for the first time in eight meetings in Cincinnati. But the Polish defending champion will draw strength from the overall consistency of her North American summer, and has the additional advantage of knowing at firsthand what it takes to go the distance in New York. The onus is on her American challengers to prove they can replicate their winning performances under the magnified pressure of a grand slam on home soil. Swiatek has never been a player to rely on past performances as a barometer of future success, yet she acknowledges that last year’s title run infused her with a newfound belief in her hard-court abilities. 

“Remembering this is a totally different chapter always helps,” said Swiatek. “[But] I also want to take a lesson from last year. I learned a lot during the US Open. This was probably the most important tournament in terms of me believing in myself and progressing on hard courts.

“I feel like in grand slams I’m more efficient. These are the tournaments that I focus on, that I work to have the best shape [in].”

Should Swiatek and Gauff cross swords in the last eight, as the seedings suggest, the teenager can expect to encounter a very different player to the one who committed a slew of unforced errors at key moments in Cincinnati. For all her focus on staying in the present, Swiatek is always more comfortable dealing in the familiar, and she will have taken careful note of the technical and tactical shifts that underpinned Gauff’s victory. Swiatek remains the player to beat, yet Gauff’s growing trust in the all-round strength of her game is well-founded.

“I’ve learned over the course of this summer that I don’t have to play A-plus tennis to win,” said Gauff. “Obviously going into the match, you hope to play the best tennis you can play, but it’s not possible all the time. 

“I think I have much more confidence now in other aspects of my game. Maybe if my serve isn’t working, I have confidence in my groundstrokes or vice versa. I think I’m more confident being able to problem solve.”

In a section of the draw that includes Mirra Andreeva, the rising 16-year-old Russian who took the first set when they met at the French Open, as well as Petra Kvitova, Collins and Poland’s Magda Linette, who pushed her to a deciding set in the opening round two years ago, there should be no shortage of challenges for Gauff to unpick. 

The survivor from the top quarter is projected to face the fourth-seeded Rybakina, although Marta Kostyuk, a powerful Ukrainian ranked 27 in the world, may have other ideas. Kostyuk has form for an early upset, having upended Maria Sakkari at Wimbledon and Caroline Garcia in Washington, and she should provide a solid test of Rybakina’s recovery from a marathon quarter-final win over Daria Kastakina in Montreal that ended shortly before 3am.

The normally forbearing Kazakh was vocal in her criticism of that episode, declaring herself “destroyed”, and she retired with an injury against Italy’s Jasmine Paolini the following week in Cincinnati. At a tournament where she has never been beyond the third round, fitness and freshness are likely to have a major bearing on Rybakina’s fortunes, especially in a quarter that includes Sakkari and Muchova.

Pegula too has been handed a tricky draw. First up is the unpredictable Camila Giorgi, ahead of a possible third-round meeting with Elina Svitolina, the popular Ukrainian who reached the last four at Roland Garros and Wimbledon. Beyond that, Pegula may need to repeat her victory over Samsonova in Cincinnati, where the Russian was physically spent after playing twice in one day. Samsonova won the only previous grand slam meeting between the pair, which came two years ago at Wimbledon (albeit at a time when Pegula was dealing with the emotional fallout from her mother’s cardiac arrest). 

Should Pegula reach the last eight, she could face Garcia – a semi-finalist last year, struggling for form this year – or Vondrousova. Having lost all seven of her previous grand slam quarter-final appearances, the American would no doubt confront a few personal demons too, although Pegula’s naturally laid-back disposition should help with that. “I just need to win a quarter-final,” she smiled when asked how she intended to break the sequence.

If she succeeds, Pegula will almost certainly find Sabalenka laying in wait. Despite her recent glut of disappointing semi-final defeats, the Belarusian has been the most consistent of the big three at the majors this season, following her first major win at the Australian Open with semi-finals in Paris and London. In New York, she will have the added incentive of challenging Swiatek for the world No 1 ranking at a third successive slam. Should she match or eclipse the Pole’s performance, Sabalenka will claim top spot for the first time.  

“This is not something I’m really thinking during the tournament, during the matches,” said Sabalenka, who will open her campaign against Belgium’s Maryna Zanevska ahead of a possible quarter-final against Jabeur. 

“I know that I had and probably I have the opportunity to become world No 1, but there is still a job to be done. I’m focusing on myself more than on the ranking.”

Sabalenka was defeated by Swiatek in last year’s semi-finals after leading by a set and a break. This time around, they cannot meet before the final. Should that happen, which seems a real possibility, expect the noise around the big three to resume with renewed force.  

Semi-finals: Swiatek to defeat Muchova; Sabalenka to defeat Samsonova.

Final: Sabalenka to defeat Swiatek.

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With a week to go until things get underway at Flushing Meadows, spectacular has arrived. Spectacular was in the building from the moment Gauff claimed the finest victory of her career against Iga Swiatek to reach a first WTA 1000 final in Cincinnati, and it remained in the 19-year-old American’s corner as she defeated Karolina Muchova of the Czech Republic 6-3, 6-4 to secure the biggest title of her life.

That is not to say the tennis itself was particularly extraordinary. After the exertions of the previous day, when Muchova repeated her French Open semi-final victory over Aryna Sabalenka, sending the Belarusian world No 2 the same way as Swiatek, the combatants were too battle-weary to give of their very best. “When I woke up this morning, the first thing I said was ‘Ouch,’” Muchova quipped afterwards. Gauff, meanwhile, rated her performance a six out of 10, which felt about right. 

Whatever the match lacked in quality, however, was counterbalanced by the magnitude of Gauff’s achievement over the course of a memorable week’s work. By her serene progress to one of the most significant titles of the North American hard-court swing, for the loss of just a single set. By her ability to handle the weight of the moment, the expectations of her home crowd, the unique style of a player she had never previously encountered. Above all, by the convergence of her innate talent with a champion’s mentality, one that enabled her to shrug off both a modest serving performance and the intense heat and humidity on a day when the mercury touched 33C. 

“Today [was] probably like a six, to be honest,” said Gauff. “I was not serving that well. But mentally, a 10. I mean, my biggest weapon was not working and I was still able to manage. Overall, this week, I would say probably a nine. 

“I think today, level-wise, was our worst match. I think Karolina might say the same. 

“It was tough, I think physically we both were feeling the impact of yesterday. I was just able to persevere a little bit more in that final push.”

Among the many intriguing aspects of a first meeting between two players with starkly contrasting styles was how Gauff would counter Muchova’s singular array of slices, drop shots and net rushing. If the American was in any doubt that she faced a very different challenge to that posed by Swiatek, she was disabused of the notion as early as the first game, where Muchova teased her forward with a drop shot before conjuring a delicious chipped backhand pass. It was shot-making redolent of another era, one where grass courts were ubiquitous and wooden rackets held sway, but such moments would be few and far between for the Czech.

On the eve of her 27th birthday, Muchova gave everything, just as she did throughout a week in which she went the distance in every round bar the quarter-finals. But she struggled physically from the outset and, having been broken three times in the opening set, she quickly fell 5-2 behind in the second.  

“I was a little tired coming into the match,” said Muchova. “I knew I had to play fast today, not be in the rallies, because it’s been many three-setters here for me, long matches, tough matches.”

The urgency of Muchova’s need to press was reflected in 35 unforced errors. Yet her extravagant gifts are allied with the heart of a warrior and, as Gauff stepped up to serve for the championship, Muchova threatened another improbable recovery, fending off three match points to prolong the contest. The manner in which she saved the second, conducting a probing examination of Gauff’s forehand, gave the teenager ample opportunity to dwell on the technical deficiencies she has sought to address since the addition of Pere Riba and Brad Gilbert to her coaching team.

But, as Swiatek discovered in the previous round, defeating Gauff is no longer simply a matter of peppering her weaker wing. Improved footwork and a stronger sense of when to attack and when to play with greater margin have seen to that. So too has a growing ability to trust in her talent at the key moments. 

“I think on those [first] match points I was like, ‘Just get the ball in’, and I think that was the wrong mentality,” said Gauff. 

“Then, in the [final] service game I just told myself, ‘Just close how you know how to close, which is hitting your spots and going for your shots.’ That’s what I did.”

While Muchova will find some consolation in claiming a place in the world’s top 10 for the first time, Gauff heads to New York riding a wave of momentum. After claiming her first WTA 500 title a fortnight ago in Washington, the teenager has won 11 of her past 12 matches, a quarter-final defeat in Montreal to her doubles partner, Jessica Pegula, the sole blemish on her American summer. Buoyed by the knowledge that she finally has the beating of Swiatek on a hard court, Gauff must be regarded as a genuine title contender at Flushing Meadows.

“You give it your all, that’s all you can do,” said Gauff. “I’m going to give it my all in the US Open. If things go great, that’s exciting. If not, I go back and work hard and get ready for the next one. That’s the mentality you have to have.”

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Compelling though that narrative may be, however, the grass-court season has produced a more diverse range of champions. Ekaterina Alexandrova won in s’Hertogenbosch. Britain’s Katie Boulter claimed her first tour-level title in Nottingham. Petra Kvitova, twice a Wimbledon winner, was crowned champion in Berlin, while Jelena Ostapenko claimed bragging rights in Birmingham. The big three may have formed a cartel, carving up the past five grand slams between them, but other options are available, certainly on grass.

Whether that trend will continue at the All England Club is another matter. The smart money still says one of Swiatek, Sabalenka or Rybakina will lift the Venus Rosewater dish come the second Saturday. Yet a measure of doubt surrounds all three. 

Sabalenka and Rybakina both come into the tournament looking a little undercooked. After suffering an unexpected defeat to Veronika Kudermetova at the German Open, Sabalenka, the Australian Open champion and world No 2, has played only two competitive matches on grass. Rybakina, meanwhile, still wrestling with the after-effects of a viral infection that forced her to withdraw from the French Open, was beaten by Donna Vekic in Berlin and subsequently pulled out of Eastbourne – hardly ideal preparation for the defence of her Wimbledon title.

As for Swiatek, everything appeared to be going swimmingly as she advanced to the first grass-court semi-final of her career in Bad Homburg. But with the Wimbledon draw in progress, the Polish world No 1 announced she was pulling out of her match against Italy’s Lucia Bronzetti due to “fever and possible food poisoning”. Swiatek has since revealed that she began to feel better later the same day, but her fitness will be the subject of close scrutiny when she faces China’s Zhu Lin on Monday.

Against this backdrop of form and fitness concerns, could the timing be right for an outsider to come up on the rails?

First quarter

Assuming she has indeed made a full recovery, Swiatek looks well placed to improve on her previous best showing in SW19, which came two years ago when she reached the fourth round. The 21-year-old’s performances in Bad Homburg suggested that she has discovered the tactical clarity and belief to do well on grass, qualities she identified as lacking following last summer’s shock third-round defeat to Alizé Cornet, which ended a historic 37-match winning streak. 

Much as she did then, Swiatek arrives at the All England Club with the wind in her sails. Having won a third French Open title in four years earlier this month, she will begin her annual attempt to solve the riddle of Wimbledon’s grass on a run of 10 straight victories, and feeling better about her prospects than she has done at any time since winning the junior event in 2018.

“Last year I felt a lot of pressure here because I was No 1,” said Swiatek. “I feel like this time was the first year where I could just focus on practising and actually learning a lot, so hopefully I’m going to be able to use that in my matches.

“Getting used to the grass was always the tricky part, because when you play well at Roland Garros then you have less time to prepare for Wimbledon. But this year I feel like I’ve done a little bit more than for the past years.”

The path to a fifth grand slam title is not without pitfalls, starting with Zhu, who as the world No 33 is the highest-ranked non-seed in the draw. After reaching the last-16 of a slam for the first time at this year’s Australian Open, the 29-year-old won her maiden title in Thailand. Zhu’s best results have come on hard courts, but wins over Venus Williams and Maria Sakkari this season suggest Swiatek will need to be on her mettle.

Petra Martic, the Croatian 30th seed and a prospective third-round opponent for Swiatek, is a more assured competitor on grass, having reached the fourth round at three of the past five Wimbledons – including last year, when she dispatched Jessica Pegula in round three. Martic, though, must navigate a potentially tricky opener against 18-year-old Linda Fruhvirtova, the rising Czech world No 49, before she can contemplate any giant-killing.

Belinda Bencic, the world No 14 and another last-16 veteran, could await Swiatek in the fourth round, ahead of a projected quarter-final tussle with Coco Gauff, against whom the Pole is unbeaten in seven meetings. If the seedings hold, Swiatek will meet Pegula, the fourth seed, in the last four.

Notable first-round matches in this quarter include an all-American clash between Gauff and Sofia Kenin, the former Australian Open champion, who breezed through qualifying without dropping a set. Equally eye-catching is the meeting of Williams, the 43-year-old five-time champion, and Elina Svitolina, a quarter-finalist earlier this month at the French Open and former world No 3.

Semi-finalist: Swiatek

Second quarter 

Pegula recently offered a bullish assessment of her prospects at a tournament where, like Swiatek, she has struggled to do herself justice.

“I feel good, I feel rested, and I feel like I’ll maybe have my love affair with grass this year,” she told Rennae Stubbs. “I feel like it’s coming.”

Five times a grand slam quarter-finalist – although never at Wimbledon, where she has yet to advance beyond the third round – could Pegula finally be poised for a deeper run? There are grounds for cautious optimism. Last year, the 29-year-old’s build-up to the fortnight was overshadowed by her mother’s near-fatal cardiac arrest. This time around, Pegula is better prepared, having played both singles and doubles at Eastbourne, where she was beaten in the quarter-finals by Gauff. 

A navigable draw augurs well for the New Yorker, who opens against her compatriot Lauren Davis. Liudmila Samsonova, who has taken her the distance in all three of their previous meetings, could turn out to be a banana skin should the pair face each other in round four; Pegula’s only loss to the Russian 15th seed came two years ago at Wimbledon. Beyond that, she is projected to play Caroline Garcia – whom she demolished in the opening round two years ago – for a place in the last four. Garcia, seeded fifth, has won the two most recent of their four meetings.

Also lurking in this section are Kudermetova and Vekic, the 20th seed, who defeated Maria Sakkari and Rybakina on her way to the Berlin final. 

Anett Kontaveit, the former world No 2 who will retire after Wimbledon, opens against Italian qualifier Lucrezia Stefanini.

Semi-finalist: Pegula.

Third quarter

This is where the fun really starts. Rybakina may have come through all three of her meetings with Swiatek this season – most notably at the Australian Open, where she went on to reach her second final in three slams – but the 23-year-old’s path to a Centre Court reunion with the Polish top seed is fraught with hazard. 

The roll call of potential opponents reads like a who’s who of seasoned pros, in-form grass-courters and major champions. Round one: Shelby Rogers, who has won two of their five meetings, including the most recent on the grass courts of s’ Hertogenbosch last summer. Round two: the ever-dangerous Cornet, who would relish the chance to follow up last year’s win over Swiatek with another major upset. Round three: home favourite Boulter, the champion in Nottingham. Round four: one of Jelena Ostapenko, the winner in Birmingham last week, Beatriz Haddad Maia, a former champion in Nottingham and Birmingham, or the German veteran Tatjana Maria, a semi-finalist in SW19 last year. As if that run weren’t onerous enough, Rybakina is slated to face Ons Jabeur in the last eight, in what would be a repeat of last year’s final. 

Yet nothing can be taken for granted in this stacked section of the draw. The sixth-seeded Jabeur, who starts against Poland’s Magdalena Frech, may need to negotiate a tricky last-16 meeting with two-time Wimbledon champion Kvitova. That, in turn, is assuming that Kvitova gets past Karolina Pliskova, a former Wimbledon finalist, in round three. Peril lurks at every turn.

With Sabalenka potentially awaiting in the semi-finals, Rybakina could not have been handed a tougher draw – and the task will be none the easier for the Kazakhstani if she is still grappling with ill-health and injury. Nevertheless, she believes she is prepared.

“For sure people are more focused, more motivated to play against me,” said Rybakina. “It’s a new challenge for me to be a defending champion, but I’m ready for this.”  

She will need to be.

Semi-finalist: Jabeur.

 Fourth quarter

What of Sabalenka’s prospects? Since capturing her long-awaited maiden grand slam in Melbourne at the start of the year, the Belarusian has been a model of consistency. Performing with newfound composure and conviction, she has reached the quarter-finals or better at all but two of the 10 events she has played this season, winning three titles and making a further two finals. 

Had Sabalenka converted the match point she held against Karolina Muchova in the French Open semi-finals, she might even have arrived at Wimbledon as the new world No 1, with the third leg of a calendar year grand slam in her sights.

The big question now, as Sabalenka returns for the first time since reaching the semi-finals two years ago, is how much mental baggage she has brought with her to south-west London after a complicated campaign at Roland Garros. Despite the intense off-court scrutiny she faced in Paris, where she was repeatedly asked about the support of her native Belarus for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it is the crushing nature of her loss to Muchova that will perhaps weigh most heavily.

“That defeat was devastating,” said British TV pundit Annabel Croft. “It will be very difficult to overcome.”

The acid test for Sabalenka, who faces Hungary’s Panna Udvardy in the first round, is likely to come in the last 16, where she is expected to cross swords with Muchova again. The Czech’s all-court game is better suited to grass than clay, and she was enthusing about her prospects at the All England Club within hours of losing to Swiatek in the French Open final. 

“I look forward to playing on the grass, on the fast surfaces, that’s for sure the surfaces I prefer,” said Muchova, who can expect a stern test in her opener against Germany’s Jule Niemeier, a surprise quarter-finalist last year.

A focused and firing Sabalenka will nonetheless take some stopping in the lower half, and already the second seed has moved to ensure that she fits that description. Clearly alive to the likelihood of facing further political questions after the lifting of last year’s ban on Russian and Belarusian, Sabalenka has made it plain from the outset that she will not answer such inquiries.

“I would like to say I’m not going to talk about politics,” Sabalenka told the media on the eve of the tournament. “I’m here to talk about tennis only. Please respect that. 

“If you have any kind of political questions, you can ask the WTA or the tournament. They can send you the transcript of my answers from the previous tournaments.”

Semi-finalist: Muchova.

Semi-finals: Swiatek to defeat Pegula; Jabeur to defeat Muchova.

Final: Swiatek to defeat Jabeur.

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He carries himself very well. No doubt very nice guy on and off the court. Brings a lot of intensity on the court. Reminds me of someone from his country that plays with a left hand.

Obviously, you lose to someone seven times, you feel crappy.

Coco Gauff on losing to Iga Swiatek seven times in a row.

Every time it finishes, I’m happy… again, same today, because [there was] wind, a dry court, I had a mouthful of clay since probably the third game of the match, and I don’t like it. I don’t know if people like to eat clay, to have clay in their bags, in their shoes, socks. White socks, you can throw them to garbage after the clay season. Maybe some people like it. I don’t. I am happy to have it finished.

Daniil Medvedev on bidding adieu to clay courts after his loss to Brazil‘s Thiago Seyboth Wild.

I think if it’s meant to be, I will get there one day. If it’s not, then I will go have a daughter and make her win Wimbledon. You always have options.

Ons Jabeur on her quest to win a first grand slam title.

I think tennis players have smaller bladders.

I’m talking about the juniors until the seniors. I never had that. You just pee before the match and that’s it. I never saw anyone wanting to pee during the match. I think there is a bladder problem.

I don’t want to be the only oldie talking about the old times, but something we could do together is to check this bladder problem. We definitely have to do something about it. It’s strange.

Yannick Noah, the 1983 champion, on the modern penchant for bathroom breaks.

I think Hawk-Eye just takes the guessing out of it. Mentally, you do kind of have to move on because there’s nothing you can do about it. I do think in that sense it helps.

But of course, I don’t think it’s 100% accurate. Jelena [Ostapenko] probably, like, wants to do a third-party investigation.

Jessica Pegula on the case for using electronic line-calls on clay.

You play with balls that get bigger after two seconds. The new balls don’t even last a game. The balls are rubbish.

You can’t play tennis with that type of ball. You can’t attack, you can’t move ahead. It’s impossible to play an ace. It’s another style of tennis, which is different. It requires physical qualities; it’s a question of who can keep the ball in the court for the longest. My game is based on service and aggressive hits back, but the ball is just not moving. It’s terrible.

It’s Roland Garros, one of the greatest tournaments in the world, and we’re playing with these silly balls.

Local favourite Benoît Paire was not impressed by the Wilson balls in use at Roland Garros.

I don’t want to really talk about [Iga’s Bakery jokes]. I really get why people do that, because it’s fun and tennis is entertainment and everything.

But from the players’ point of view, I want to be respectful to my opponents and, you know, you don’t see the stuff that is behind the scenes. Sometimes it’s not easy to play such matches and sometimes it’s not easy also for the opponents.

I don’t want to talk about the bakery. Twitter can talk about it, but I’m just going to be focused on tennis.

Iga Swiatek is more comfortable doling out bagels and breadsticks (6-0 and 6-1 sets) than talking about them.

This is tennis. This is sports. Some umpires, they make mistakes. Some for me; some for him. That’s life.

Holger Rune on winning a point against Francisco Cerúndolo after a double bounce.

It was very close, but very far.

Karolina Muchova on her defeat to Iga Swiatek in the final.

Guys, I don’t have a lot of things to tell you. He played great. I mean, I don’t think he played exceptional, but he played great. One thing that I’m going to try to avoid in the future is have melatonin pills and naps before matches because it clearly doesn’t seem to be working.

Stefanos Tsitsipas attempts to explain his quarter-final loss to Carlos Alcaraz.

The dream? I know that Djokovic, he did 22 Grand Slams or 23, so I want to go until 25, if it will be possible.

Mirra Andreeva, 16, outlines her ambitions for the future.

Novak knows. Novak waits. Like Roddick said, he takes the legs, then he takes your soul, then he dig your grave and you have a funeral and you’re dead. Bye-bye, thank you for coming.

Goran Ivanisevic, Novak Djokovic’s coach, on what makes his man special.

I’m not supporting the war, meaning I don’t support Lukashenko right now.

Aryna Sabalenka clarifies her stance on Belarusian support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.

I’m Ukrainian. I’m standing for my country. I’m doing everything possible to support, to give a good spirit for the men, for the women, who are right now in the frontline, fighting for our land, for our country.

So can you imagine the guy or a girl who is right now in the frontline, you know, looking at me and I’m, like, acting like nothing is happening. I’m representing my country. I have a voice. I’m standing with Ukraine. I’m standing, I have my position in this war.

What the Russian government or Russian soldiers are doing on our land is really, really terrible. For us, it’s just our position in this, and it touches many different areas. It touches sport, it touches acting, it touches all different areas. So, you know, we are all united, Ukrainians. And this is our position.

Elina Svitolina with some of the most powerful words uttered at Roland Garros in 2023.

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Crowned champion twice before at Roland Garros after dominant performances on the final Saturday, Swiatek was forced to dig deep on the Parisian clay for a third, battling Karolina Muchova of the Czech Republic for almost three hours before she finally prevailed 6-2, 5-7, 6-4.

At a set and a break to the good, the Polish world No 1 looked home and dry. At 2-0 down in the decider, and with her composure fraying in the face of Muchova’s all-court excellence, she looked down and out. Never before had Swiatek dropped a set in a grand slam final, but she remained hard as nails throughout, her courage and resilience carrying her to a 29th victory in 31 matches at the tournament.

Only when a Muchova double-fault finally confirmed victory did the mask slip. Swiatek dropped to her haunches, covering her face with her hands as her name was chanted by a crowd treated to one of the best finals in many years, and the emotion poured forth. Before long, though, she was up in the stands, tears turning to laughter as she exchanged hugs with her team and her family.

“I’m feeling all these different emotions right now,” Swiatek said later. “It’s pretty surreal, everything. The match was really intense, a lot of ups and downs. Stressful moments and coming back.

“I’m pretty happy that at the end I could be solid in those few last games and finish it.”

Back down at courtside, Muchova sat in her chair, disconsolate. Serving at 4-3 in the decider, the gifted 26-year-old had stood within two games of the biggest win of a career that, were it not for persistent injury problems, might already have delivered so much more.

“The feeling is a little bitter, because I felt it was very close,” said the 43rd-ranked Muchova, who struggled to hold back tears during the trophy ceremony.

“But overall, I mean, to call myself a grand slam finalist, it’s an amazing achievement, and for sure big motivation for me to work in the future and to get a chance again to play for these big titles.”

She surely will. Comebacks have become Muchova’s forte: from a complicated abdominal injury that kept her out of the game for seven months; from the nadir that came when doctors warned she may never again play professional tennis; from the sprained ankle that cruelly stopped her in tracks at this event last year, just as she was finally recapturing her form. There have been comebacks on the court, too: from match point down against Aryna Sabalenka, the world No 2 and Australian Open champion, in an epic semi-final; and, here, from a difficult first set that, while it looked close to the naked eye, was nothing of the sort in scoreboard terms.

When Swiatek established a 6-2, 3-0 lead, Muchova looked on course for the heaviest defeat in a women’s final since Henin defeated Ana Ivanovic for the loss of just two games in 2005. Her game, a luscious combination of power, finesse and supreme athleticism that has drawn comparisons with Roger Federer, had clicked in fits and starts, but intermittent excellence is no match for the relentless consistency of Swiatek. The Pole frequently played the role of Rafael Nadal to her opponent’s Federer, sending fizzing topspin forehands up high to the Czech’s backhand to draw defensive one-handed slices. Such shots were meat and drink to the defending champion.

Muchova finally stopped the rot, holding serve with a crisp backhand volley that kissed the side-line, and when Swiatek went fractionally wide with a two-hander to go break point down, the Czech seized the opportunity to build on that slender second-set lifeline, firing a laser-like forehand down the line for a winner.

Though she was back on serve, the odds remained firmly stacked against Muchova. In 54 matches on clay as a professional, Swiatek had only once gone on to lose after taking the first set. The consolation for the Czech was that it was she herself who inflicted that defeat, winning the only previous meeting between the pair four years ago in Prague. Then, though, Swiatek was a 17-year-old qualifier ranked 95 in the world. Surely she would not allow history to repeat itself?

“I felt pretty confident with my game in the second set, but I also knew that it was only one break,” said Swiatek. “So I needed to stay constantly aware and ready for everything, especially playing against Karolina, knowing that she’s come back from really crazy situations in this tournament, and she managed to win those matches.

“I just wanted to be ready. But I felt like I let her a little bit into the match, which I shouldn’t do. Obviously, she’s a great player, so she used that chance.”

Use it Muchova did, albeit at the second time of asking. Having broken for 5-4 as Swiatek, showing the first signs of strain, capped an error-strewn game with a double fault, Muchova made four mistakes of her own, thwarting her hopes of serving out the set. But with Swiatek still struggling, another break followed, and this time Muchova made the most of it. Having missed two set points, the Czech fashioned a third with an incredible lunging volley that almost left her face down in the clay, and Swiatek then sent a return long to leave the match level with an hour and 55 minutes gone.

Those two rallies began a remarkable sequence of 11 straight points against Swiatek, who started the decider in frazzled fashion. Another double fault cost her a love break, and when Muchova then held with back-to-back aces, the defending champion was staring down the barrel.

“I took the chances in the second set and I felt like the momentum went a bit on my side,” said Muchova. “I started well in the third set as well.

“But to play against her, you have to be ready. The balls are coming fast. She’s not doing any easy mistakes, and you always know that [if] you have a chance, you have to take it, because maybe there is no other chance.”

In fact, Swiatek twice battled back from a break down in the decider, each time raising the tempo with huge hitting from the baseline. It was testimony not only to her composure but also to her bravery and enduring commitment to the attacking style that her coach, Tomasz Wiktorowski, encouraged her to adopt from the moment the pair began working together in late 2021.

“In the third set, I didn’t want to have any regrets about the second,” said Swiatek. “I just looked forward, and I said to myself, ‘OK, you know what? I’m just going to give it all.’ No thinking, no analysing. Just play my game, use my intuition.”

How it paid off. At the age of 22, Swiatek is the first woman to lift the Suzanne Lenglen Cup in consecutive years since Justine Henin won her fourth and final title in the 16th arrondissement in 2007. She is also the youngest player to defend the title since Monica Seles, and only the third woman in the open era to win each of her first four grand slam finals, following in the footsteps of Seles and Naomi Osaka.

When the lid fell from the trophy as Swiatek cavorted on the winners’ podium afterwards, it felt as though the pressure and expectation of the past few months went with it.

“I’m happy that I finished the whole clay-court swing so well, and that I kind of survived,” said Swiatek. “I guess I’m never going to doubt my strength again maybe, because of that.”

Nor should she. The queen of clay’s reign continues, and it will take something truly special to unseat her.

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That has been easier said than done in a season when Sabalenka, who won her first major six months ago at the Australian Open, has claimed more wins than any other player on the WTA Tour. But in one of the most dramatic matches of the year, the unseeded Muchova produced one of the biggest upsets of the year, saving a match point at 2-5 in the final set as she used her guile and variety to claim a 7-6 (7-5), 6-7 (5-7), 7-5 victory.

In her first grand slam final, the Czech world No 43 will face Iga Swiatek, the world No 1 and defending champion, who avenged her loss to Beatriz Haddad Maia last year in Toronto with a 6-2, 7-6 (9-7) win. 

Muchova, a former world No 19, has previous when it comes to toppling big names. Two years ago, she defeated Ashleigh Barty, then ranked No 1, en route to the Australian Open semi-finals. She followed up a couple of months later by beating Naomi Osaka, the world No 2 at the time, in Madrid. Those results, and a few more like them. meant Muchova came into her meeting with Sabalenka undefeated against top-three players. 

Even so, few would have predicted this latest milestone. The 26-year-old, who has been plagued by injuries throughout her career, arrived in Paris still looking to make up lost ground in the rankings after returning from a seven-month layoff with an abdominal problem in March of last year only to roll an ankle at Roland Garros. Muchova fell out of the top 100 in the months that followed, dipping as low as No 235 in the world. Yet, as her first-round victory over Maria Sakkari demonstrated, she remains a richly gifted player, and against Sabalenka she put her extensive repertoire to good use, absorbing the Belarusian’s power with her sliced backhand, disrupting her rhythm with drop shots and frequent forays to the net, and serving with precision and authority. 

Regardless of which way the final goes, Muchova is now guaranteed a long overdue place in the top 10 – not bad for a player whose serial injury travails led some medics to warn she might have to give up the sport entirely.

“There have been many moments, many lows, I would say, from one injury to another,” said Muchova. “When I missed the Australian Open last year, and I was in a pretty bad state healthy-wise, I was working out a lot to try to get back. 

“You never know. Some doctors told me, ‘Maybe you’ll not do sport any more.’ But I always kept positive in my mind and tried to work and do all the exercises to be able to come back.”

Muchova’s determination served her well down the stretch against Sabalenka. The final games were a mixture of the brilliant and the bizarre. On the one hand, once she had slotted away a forehand behind a fine first serve to stave off match point, Muchova barely put a foot wrong. Defying cramp, she laid the groundwork for a subsequent break by rifling a huge return winner down the line, and continued to play with the same calm authority she had shown throughout. At the same time, Sabalenka inexplicably went into a fatal tailspin, her game deserting her as she won just four of the last 24 points.

“I think after I lost my serve [at 5-3 in the decider],” replied Sabalenka, when asked where she felt the match began to slip away. 

“I was serving for the match, so I think after that game she kind of stepped in and started playing a little bit more aggressive, and I kind of lost my rhythm. I wasn’t there.”

Sabalenka’s late dropoff was in stark contrast to the first two sets, where the quality on display from both women was frequently mesmerising. It was a collision of power and artistry, Sabalenka determined to bulldoze her way through the Czech’s defences, Muchova doing all she could to disrupt the Belarusian’s rhythm and play the match on her own terms.

Yet it was also so much more. Each player showed a willingness to take on the other at their own game. When Muchova attempted to break up the pace with a sliced backhand early in the first set, Sabalenka moved forward and feathered away a drop shot. When Sabalenka fashioned a break point with a crushing return, Muchova replied with an ace. It was cat and mouse stuff, the Czech testing Sabalenka’s patience and mental strength with her athletic defending, forever forcing her to make one more ball, even as Sabalenka attempted to overwhelm Muchova with her sustained intensity and strength of will.

Such tennis has been par for the course for Sabalenka over the past fortnight. For a player who had never advanced beyond the third round of the French Open before last week, the Belarusian cut through the lower half of the women’s draw as though to the manner born. A highly anticipated meeting with Swiatek began to look inevitable, particularly once Elena Rybakina withdrew from the tournament with illness, but a reprise of the Stuttgart and Madrid finals, which ended with one title apiece, was not to be.

One had to wonder whether the various controversies in which Sabalenka became embroiled over the fortnight contributed to her downfall. She was involved in politically-charged matches against Marta Kostyuk and Elina Svitolina, both from Ukraine, and twice declined to attend open press conferences after a Ukrainian reporter pressed her to clarify her stance on Russia’s invasion, which has been supported by Belarus. Sabalenka acknowledged that her reserves were depleted, but attributed her tiredness to the physical demands of clay-court tennis rather than politics.

“I’m really exhausted right now,” said Sabalenka. “But I think it’s only because I lost this match. It’s a very, very tough, tough match for me to lose. I think it’s normal to feel exhausted after two weeks of playing non-stop and playing on the clay. It’s always physical matches.”

Sabalenka’s defeat meant Swiatek needed to defeat Haddad Maia to retain the No 1 ranking, a task the Pole accomplished only after withstanding a late fightback from the never-say-die 14th seed.

Haddad Maia has been the master escapologist of these championships, recovering from a set down in three straight matches, and when she outrallied Swiatek to bring up a set point at 6-5 in the second-set tiebreak, she looked to be on her way once more. What the 27-year-old Brazilian would have given at that stage for one of the laser-like forehand winners with which she frequently tormented Swiatek. Instead, a meek effort nose-dived into the net and the chance was gone, the world No 1 shaking off her passivity to reach a third final in four years.

“I’m just pretty happy to be in the final again,” said Swiatek. “It was a tough match, and especially [in the] second set, every point counted. It was stressful in some moments, so I’m happy that I was really solid and I was able to close it in the tiebreaker.”

Swiatek has now won 13 matches in a row at Roland Garros, and has yet to drop a set at this year’s tournament. In Muchova, she will once again face an opponent who won their only previous meeting, although much has changed since that day in Prague four years ago. A confirmed admirer of the Czech’s game, Swiatek knows what to expect in Saturday’s final.

“I played many practices with her since 2019, and I also watch her actually more than most of the players,” said Swiatek. “Just a coincidence, but it happened.

“I really like her game, honestly. I really respect her, and she’s a player who can do anything. She has great touch. She can also speed up the game. She plays with that kind of, I don’t know, freedom in her movements. And she has a great technique.

“So I watched her matches and I feel like I know her game pretty well. But obviously in matches, it’s a little bit different and I’ll be ready no matter what.”

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