The biggest casualty came early. Shortly after cutting short a morning practice session, Aryna Sabalenka, seeded third and twice a semi-finalist at the All England Club, withdrew from the tournament with a shoulder injury. The 26-year-old subsequently took to social media to say she was “heartbroken” to have to pull out of her scheduled first-round match against Emina Bektas of the United States.

“I tried everything to get myself ready but unfortunately my shoulder is not co-operating,” wrote Sabalenka. “I pushed myself to the limit in practice today to try my best, but my team explained that playing would only make things much worse.”

Sabalenka, who also withdrew from her quarter-final match at last month’s Berlin Open with shoulder pain, spoke openly of her physical struggles before the tournament, yet that did little to mitigate the sense of shock surrounding her withdrawal. With the likes of Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray all but clambering off the operating table and straight on to the practice courts in recent weeks, we have become inured to top players defying medical probability. But not every physical issue can be surmounted, and Sabalenka’s injury – to the teres major, a small but important muscle that runs under the shoulder joint and controls abduction and internal rotation – has caused her pain on her service, the bedrock of her game. Her frustration has been magnified by the fact that she can perform other movements without pain.

“The most annoying thing is that I can do anything, I can practise, I can hit my groundstrokes, but I’m struggling with serving, so that’s really annoying,” Sabalenka said at the weekend. 

“You don’t feel like you are injured, you know. If you give me some weights, I’m going to go and lift some weights. But if you tell me to serve, I’m going to go through pain.”

Sabalenka’s absence will be keenly felt, particularly with four of the world’s top six in the upper half of the draw. Coco Gauff, seeded second, was originally expected to face the two-time Australian Open championin the semi-finals. The American has never been beyond the fourth round, but made a winning start against Caroline Dolehide, dismissing her compatriot 6-2, 6-1 to erase the memory of last year’s first-round exit to Sofia Kenin. Gauff is not getting ahead of herself following Sabalenka’s withdrawal.

“I wouldn’t have probably played her till the semis,” said Gauff. “At that point, it’s just like, ‘This is the semi-finals of a grand slam.’ No matter who you play, it’s going to be a tough person to play. 

“But it is unfortunate that she had to pull out. She’s always a contender in every slam and [on] every surface. She’s such a competitor.”

Sabalenka was swiftly followed out of the tournament by another Belarusian nursing a shoulder injury. Victoria Azarenka, seeded 16th and also a two-time semi-finalist in SW19, had been scheduled to face Sloane Stephens in a battle of former major winners, but was likewise forced to withdraw. Stephens, the 2017 US Open champion, despatched Azarenka’s replacement, French lucky loser Elsa Jacquemot, 6-3, 6-3.

That left Karolina Pliskova, a finalist in 2021, as the only remaining player in the bottom half of the draw with experience of the latter stages. However, the 32-year-old Czech was beaten 4-6, 7-5, 6-4 by Diana Shnaider, the recently crowned Bad Homburg champion. If that deepened an already palpable sense of opportunity, the door was pushed further ajar when Lulu Sun, a 23-old-qualifier ranked 123 in the world, defeated Qinwen Zheng, the Chinese world No 8. The New Zealander defeated Zheng, who was seeded to meet Sabalenka in the quarter-finals in a repeat of this year’s Australian Open final, 4-6, 6-2, 6-4.

Among those hoping to capitalise on Zheng’s loss will be Emma Raducanu, the former US Open champion, who was beneficiary of yet another late withdrawal. Originally expected to face Ekaterina Alexandrova, the 22nd seed, Raducanu instead found herself up against Mexico’s Renata Zarzua, a lucky loser ranked 98 in the world. The British wild card, ranked 135, prevailed 7-6 (7-0), 6-3 and will next face Elise Mertens of Belgium, the world’s best doubles player, who came from behind to see off Japan’s Nao Hibino 2-6, 6-2, 6-4.

Should Raducanu advance to the third round, she could meet Maria Sakkari, the Greek ninth seed, who navigated the opening round of a major for only the second time in six attempts with a 6-3, 6-1 win over McCartney Kessler of the United States. 

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Rybakina, who trounced Aryna Sabalenka to win the Brisbane International last month and defeated Daria Kasatkina to take the spoils in Abu Dhabi last week, is fast emerging as the player to beat in 2024. Her 6-2, 6-4 victory over Pavlyuchenkova was her eighth in a row since the Australian Open, where a shock second-round loss to Anna Blinkova looks increasingly like an outlier. Swiatek, who was beaten by the Kazakhstani world No 4 at Melbourne Park and Indian Wells last year, and also withdrew with injury in the deciding set of their quarter-final meeting in Rome, can expect to have her work cut out in the final.

Rybakina, however, did not have things all her own way against the resurgent Pavlyuchenkova. Swiatek and her team will have noted with interest how hard the third seed had to work to hold serve on a slow court that nullifies the pace of her delivery. The Pole is likely to be less forgiving than Pavlyuchekova, who converted just one of the nine break points she fashioned, tempting Rybakina into a low-percentage forehand down the line as she served for the match at 5-2 in the second set. 

That miss heralded an auspicious few minutes for Pavlyuchenkova, who held convincingly before conjuring a brilliant topspin lob to earn a point for 5-5. Rybakina clung on, ripping a forehand down the line to force an error and going on to seal the win with her third ace of the afternoon, but a ratio of 39 unforced errors to 27 winners made her straight-sets victory a good deal more complicated than the scoreline would suggest.

“[I’m] really happy that it was two sets,” said Rybakina. “Maybe the score in the first set doesn’t show [it], but it was a very physical match and we were both fighting. Every point was tough, and in the first set it went my way. I served really well and [made] some good returns. 

“In the second, it was a little bit shaky in the end, but I’m very happy that I closed it out.

“I knew it was going to be tough. Nastia, she plays really well now, she returns really well, so you need to really work on the service games. Here it’s not that fast, so I cannot really get many easy points. So for every point you need to work, and it was really tough physically.”

Defeat notwithstanding, it has been a memorable week for Pavlyuchenkova. Barely a year ago, she was languishing at 846 in the rankings following a protracted layoff with a knee injury. It has taken time for the former world No 11 to re-establish herself, but after reaching the fourth WTA 1000 semi-final of her career – and claiming notable wins over Daria Kasatkina, Marketa Vondrousova and Danielle Collins along the way – the 32-year-old will rise eight places to No 24 next week. 

Hot on her heels will be Pliskova, who is projected to rise 23 spots to No 36. The Czech’s withdrawal follows a remarkable run of nine victories in 10 days that began in Cluj-Napoca, Romania, where the 31-year-old won her first title in four years on Sunday. A 10-hour flight to Doha followed, leaving Pliskova just four hours to sleep before taking to the court for her opening-round match against Anna Kalinskaya. 

Extended to a third set by the Russian, Pliskova also went the distance against Anastasia Potapova and Linda Noskova before winning two tiebreaks to see off Naomi Osaka in the quarter-finals. It has been a marathon effort by the former US Open and Wimbledon finalist, and unsurprisingly it finally caught up with her.

“Unfortunately my body couldn’t compete today in [the] semi-finals,” Pliskova wrote on social media. “The schedule of [the] last two weeks was too difficult to recover from all these tough matches. I have an MRI scan tomorrow. Hope to be back on court soon.”

Pliskova’s withdrawal means Swiatek becomes the first player to reach the title round at the same hard-court event for three years in succession since Serena Williams made the last of three straight Australian Open finals in 2017. Rybakina is well aware that three victories in four previous meetings with Swiatek will count for little at a tournament the Pole has made her own. 

“For sure it gives some confidence, but every match is a new match,” said Rybakina. “She plays really well, she’s fresher now for sure, and she likes the conditions here, she was winning a lot. I’m already happy [to be in the final] and I will try to enjoy tomorrow and do as much as I can.”

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It is just under two years since the 22-year-old last dropped a set in the Qatari capital, and while there were moments in a tightly contested opening set when it seemed possible Victoria Azarenka might dent that impressive record, Swiatek extinguished the danger in ruthless fashion. 

The Polish world No 1 reeled off nine games in a row to claim her 11th consecutive victory at the event, prevailing 6-4, 6-0 to secure a semi-final showdown with Karolina Pliskova, who later defeated Naomi Osaka 7-6 (8-6), 7-6 (7-5).

It has been very much business as usual for Swiatek, who arrived at the first WTA 1000 event of the season insisting that her past record meant nothing, only to make a mockery of that analysis with a series of outstanding performances. In her opening match, she demolished Sorana Cirstea, the dangerous Romanian world No 22, for the loss of just two games. Then she saved all eight break points she faced in a combative second set against Ekaterina Alexandrova, the powerful 14th-seeded Russian. And against Azarenka, Swiatek took her total of sets won by a 6-0 or 6-1 scoreline at the tournament to 11 of the past 23. It is, undeniably, a venue she likes.

“I do, that’s true,” said Swiatek. “I was really excited to come here, I always feel like it’s a great place to just focus on playing tennis, no fuss around that is not necessary. I’m just really in the work zone and I’m really enjoying being here.”

It showed. 

With Azarenka serving at 4-4, 30-40, the faintest hint of a smile flickered across Swiatek’s lips as she glanced towards her team after making a hash of an inviting return. The Pole is not particularly noted for a sanguine disposition in such circumstances, yet her reaction spoke of calmness, confidence, a player relishing the battle. That sangfroid served her well, a thunderous backhand immediately earning a second break point which the anguished Azarenka conceded with a double fault.

After a nip-and-tuck start that featured an early exchange of breaks and countless absorbing baseline exchanges, it was to prove a turning point. Swiatek began to focus her attack on Azarenka’s forehand, drawing the Belarusian ever wider before exploiting the open space. She has spoken this week of the need to strike a better balance between defence and attack, and here she did precisely that, patiently constructing the points before pulling the trigger.     

Azarenka, twice a champion herself in Doha, defeated Jelena Ostapenko in the previous round, her fifth win in five matches against the Latvian removing a substantial obstacle from the path of Swiatek, who has lost all four of her previous meetings with Ostapenko. It has been another fine week for the 34-year-old but, as the physicality of the contest caught up with her, her game began to unravel.  

“I struggled a little bit to find my rhythm in the first set, but then I kind of learned my lesson and just played in a really solid way,” said Swiatek. “I was happy with how I kept my focus in the second set, and I just went for it and didn’t look back.”

Another former world No 1 awaits in the semi-finals in the shape of Pliskova, whose victory over Osaka was her ninth in 10 days, following last week’s title run in Cluj-Napoca. It has been a Herculean effort by the Czech, who was relieved to clinch victory in the second of two tiebreaks after Osaka saved a match point at 5-4 in the second set, and then fended off two more at 6-5. 

“[I’m] happy that I survived somehow and didn’t have to stay for the third set,” said Pliskova, who slept for only four hours before her opening-round win over Anna Kalinskaya on Monday, having played the final in Romania the previous day. The 31-year-old has lost all three of her previous meetings with Swiatek.

“I will have nothing to lose,” said Pliskova. “I have to play well, go for my shots and hopefully there’s going to be a small chance, I believe, if it’s windy a little bit, because I feel like I have a strong game in the wind.”

In the bottom half, Elena Rybakina defeated Leylah Fernandez 6-4, 6-2 to set up a last-four showdown with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, who claimed a 7-5, 6-4 victory over Danielle Collins.

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Funny thing, though: Linette feels like she’s done it all before. The big crowds. The show courts. The star opponents. That’s probably because she has.

Linette, a 30-year-old Pole currently ranked 45th in the world but about to climb a lot higher, has faced Serena Williams in the cavernous environs of the US Open’s Arthur Ashe Stadium and Angelique Kerber at Wimbledon. From Tianjin to Stanford, she’s played some of the biggest names in the sport’s recent history: Maria Sharapova, Naomi Osaka, Garbiñe Muguruza, Venus Williams, the list goes on. 

The difference now? She’s winning. Sure, Linette has had some big victories before, most notably at Roland Garros, where she felled Ons Jabeur on Court Philippe-Chatrier last summer, a year after accounting for an injured Ashleigh Barty on the same court. But now, for the first time, the successes are coming thick and fast. 

Linette followed up her impressive fourth-round win over Caroline Garcia, the fourth seed and WTA Finals champion, with another outstanding performance, dispatching former world No 1 Karolina Pliskova 6-3, 7-5. In the semi-finals, she will meet Aryna Sabalenka, the fifth seed, who ran out a 6-3, 6-2 winner against Croatia’s Donna Vekic. It is more than Linette ever expected, but familiarity with the big stage has enabled the Pole, filling the void left by her compatriot Iga Swiatek’s absence, to take things in her stride.

“I had so much experience on those big courts before, because almost every grand slam I ended up on a big court one way or another,” said Linette, who has beaten four seeded players in Melbourne. “I played so many big players already. It’s just nothing really new for me. Just another match. 

“Of course, it’s way more far in the draw. But still, it kind of feels the same. Because I played Karolina in the first round already twice at the US Open, so it feels quite normal.”

It is all a far cry from two years ago, when Linette’s knee gave way on the eve of the tournament, forcing her to withdraw. The longstanding problem would eventually require surgery, but from that nadir came fresh perspective and a newfound composure.  

“It was honestly the most painful experience of my life,” said Linette. “Nobody could diagnose me for almost 11 weeks, so I was out for a total of five months. It was something really basic. At the end of the day, I had meniscus surgery. 

“It definitely changed a lot for me. I became a little bit calmer. I changed a lot in my life and made some tough decisions, and I think I’m getting rewarded for it now.”

Linette was helped on her way by an erratic performance from Pliskova, whose 36 unforced errors including two consecutive double faults in the penultimate game. The Czech, who had won seven of the previous nine meetings between the pair but lost the two most recent, suggested Linette’s consistency had been a decisive factor.     

“I hit some really good serves, then she still like puts many balls back,” said Pliskova. “That’s the pressure where you want to go for more and then you miss. I think she really made it difficult for me, not missing many balls, not giving anything for free, any mistakes. I just didn’t play a great match.”

Sabalenka has yet to lose a set since she arrived in Australia, but she was forced to navigate a testing passage midway through the opener as Vekic recovered from an early break before threatening to edge ahead.

“There were a lot of tough moments,” said Sabalenka. “I just kept saying, ‘Just stay in the game, fight for it, don’t give her easy points, make her work for it.’

“That’s how I was able to get out from those situations.”

 The auspices are encouraging for Sabalenka as she contemplates a fourth tilt at a grand slam final, having previously been thwarted in the last four at Wimbledon and, twice, at the US Open. She has won both her previous matches against Linette, including an emphatic victory at the Tokyo Olympics last summer, but she will be taking nothing for granted.

“It’s going to be a great test for me, if I can actually keep myself calm,” said Sabalenka. “In the semi-finals before, I got there with up and downs. [That] didn’t help me at all. 

“So right now it’s going to be a real test for me, if I can keep myself calm like I was keeping myself calm during these past matches.”

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While Elena Rybakina was cutting a swathe through the women’s draw at the All England Club this summer, a body of work that would culminate with the Duchess of Cambridge presenting the Venus Rosewater dish to a player born and raised in Moscow, Aryna Sabalenka was busy putting in the hard yards during a training block in Miami. 

If there was a bright side to being barred from the tournament where Sabalenka had reached her first major semi-final the previous year, when she was beaten in three tight sets by Karolina Pliskova, it was that it gave the Belarusian a chance to reset. A wretched start to the season had seen her service disintegrate; with it had gone her form, confidence and status as the world’s No 2 player. Now she had a rare chance to disembark from the treadmill of the tour and put things right. 

The results have been plain to see at this US Open, where Sabalenka reached the semi-finals for the second year in a row with a 6-1, 7-6 (7-4) victory over Pliskova, avenging last summer’s defeat to the Czech in SW19. The 24-year-old believes her enforced absence from Wimbledon has improved her prospects of success in New York; paradoxically, in denying Sabalenka the chance to win one major title, the All England Club may have inadvertently helped her to win another.

“I had another pre-season,” said Sabalenka, the sixth seed, of her time in Miami. “I worked really hard, and I worked a lot on my serve. It was a tough time, especially when I was working out in the gym and there was Wimbledon playing on the TV. I would always turn it off, because I couldn’t watch it. 

“I had a lot of good memories from there, and I missed it very much. That’s why I wasn’t able to watch it, because it reminded me about the great time I had there. But it’s okay. Whatever.

“They took away one opportunity from me, and I worked really hard for this one.”

Sabalenka has progressed through the draw at Flushing Meadows like an angel of vengeance. In the second round, she rebounded from a set and 5-1 down to claim an improbable win over Kaia Kanepi, saving two match points along the way. The Estonian veteran had defeated her in a final-set tiebreak at the Australian Open, a period when she was racking up double faults by the dozen, and since putting that wrong to right Sabalenka has performed with the free-swinging abandon of a woman playing with house money. 

Against Pliskova, she completed her revenge mission without facing a single break point, and it was indicative of how far she has come since the dark days of early January – when she struck 39 double faults over the course of two matches in Adelaide – that, when the crunch moments came late in the second set, she went for her second serve without compunction. 

That was never more apparent than when Sabalenka thundered down a 103mph second serve ace early in the tiebreak. What Pliskova would have given to have her own huge delivery functioning with such fluency. Instead it was the Czech, a finalist in New York six years ago, who struggled with double faults early in the contest, delivering three in her first two games to fall a double break behind. She would finish the opener with 15 unforced errors and just a solitary winner, a dire return for a player of her quality.

“She was playing super-aggressive, serving amazing,” said Pliskova, the 22nd seed. “I think I never played her in this kind of shape. I guess there are days like this, when she’s playing amazing, I’m not playing the best, not serving the best at all today. I just somehow couldn’t feel really the court. I was a bit lost out there.”

There were times late in the second set against Jessica Pegula when Iga Swiatek looked lost, but the world No 1 rode out the shifting rhythms of a contest featuring 13 service breaks to seal a 6-3, 7-6 (7-4) victory that puts her through to the semi-finals for the first time. 

After falling behind to an early break, a change of racket brought a change of fortune for Swiatek, who reeled off five straight games to move ahead by a set and a break. But Pegula, bidding to reach her first major semi-final after losing in the last eight at the Australian Open and Roland Garros, belatedly found her range from the baseline, twice thwarting the Polish top seed as she served for the match.

“For most of the tournament, when the ball was flying away, I focused just on myself and changing the technique a little bit to keep it in,” said Swiatek, whose consternation about the lighter balls used in the women’s event has been the subject of much discussion.

“Today, I realised that I need extra help from the racquet and the string itself, because Jessie is such a tough opponent. 

“I realised that it may be better to switch rackets, even though I’m only switching after the ball change.  I think it helped me a lot. I think also the conditions helped me, because it was colder today. The ball wasn’t flying as much.”

Against Sabalenka, it will be flying plenty.

The post Sabalenka storms past Pliskova at US Open appeared first on Love Game Tennis.

But while the result and the opponent were the same, the circumstances could not have been more different. Boulter’s 3-6, 7-6 (7-4), 6-4 win, which takes her through to the third round of a grand slam for the first time at the age of 25, came two days after the death of her maternal grandmother Jill Gartshore. 

If Boulter’s first win over Pliskova, a finalist at Wimbledon last year, was grounded in tenacity and self-belief, the second was forged in grief for the loss of a beloved family member who helped her take her first steps in the game.  

“It was a very, very tough match for me, for many aspects,” said Boulter, who recalled how her grandmother took her to play at her local club when she was four. “I’m super proud of myself for getting through today against a player like that, having already played her last week. 

“I also had expectations going out there, and I managed to control my emotions very well and played a really good match. Ultimately it came down to the wire and I think I stayed really strong in the tough moments.”

In an emotional on-court interview, Boulter earlier dedicated the win to her grandmother, moving TV chef Dame Mary Berry and many other Centre Court onlookers to tears. 

“I’ve got no words rights now, I’m literally shaking, the crowd was unbelievable, so thank you so much for getting me through that,” said Boulter. “I’m going to get emotional. My gran passed away two days ago, and I’d just like to dedicate that to her today.”

Boulter’s journey to this moment has been filled with adversity. A precociously talented junior who reached the final of the prestigious Orange Bowl event in 2011, she contracted chronic fatigue syndrome three years later and for a time was left virtually bedridden. Boulter eventually returned and, in 2019, broke into the top 100 for the first time – only to suffer a spinal stress fracture on Fed Cup duty that kept her out for nine months. The pandemic delayed her comeback further, and only now is she showing the form of which she is capable. It has been a long road.

“I have had to build momentum and some strength physically,” said Boulter, who is currently ranked 118th. “It’s a huge part of my game. I finally have been able to put that work in. It’s started to pay off. I’ve got a lot more work to do, and hopefully I can keep doing that.”

Boulter, who grew up in the village of Woodhouse Eaves in Leicester, comes from a close-knit family with a strong background in the game. Her grandmother was an accomplished regional player, while her mother Sue is a former county player and coach. Boulter said her grandfather Brian, who was present alongside her mother in the players’ box, had been careful to keep news of her grandmother’s passing from her until after her first-round win over Clara Burel.

“I actually had a phone call from my grandpa the night before I played,” she said. “He didn’t mention anything, but he kind of gave me the inkling that it might be coming. I didn’t know anything until after my first match, where my mum basically pulled me aside and told me.”

Boulter later watched her boyfriend, the 19th-seeded Australian Alex De Minaur, defeat Britain’s Jack Draper 5-7, 7-6 (7-0), 6-2, 6-3.

In another contest rich in emotion, former semi-finalist Kirsten Flipkens was defeated 7-5, 6-4 by Simona Halep in the final singles match of her career. Halep, the 16th seed and 2019 title-winner, embraced Flipkens warmly afterwards, before the tearful 36-year-old stooped to kiss the Court 2 grass. Flipkens, who reached a career-high ranking of 13th, led 5-2 in the opening set and 4-1 in the second.

“For everything there is an end in life, and I’m about to start now a new chapter,” said Flipkens. “It’s a special feeling. I would have dreamed for a goodbye like today. I was really close to even taking a set from a champion like Simona. 

“It’s just a perfect way for me to end.”

Iga Swiatek extended her winning streak to 37 matches, although not before dropping a set for only the seventh time since her unbeaten run began in late February. Swiatek, the world No 1, defeated Lesley Pattinama Kerkhove of the Netherlands, a lucky loser ranked 138th, 6-4, 4-6, 6-3.

“Grass is pretty tricky for me, I’m not going to lie,” said the Polish world No 1, who will play Alizé Cornet in round three. “I guess you can see that I’m not playing maybe as efficiently as on other surfaces. Basically, my confidence is getting better overall. But this tournament is tricky and I’m still feeling out how to play the best game here.”

Petra Kvitova, the champion in 2011 and 2014, survived a late fightback by Ana Bogdan, who trailed by a set and 5-1 before reeling off five games in a row. Kvitova, who won in Eastbourne last week, came through 6-1, 7-6 (7-5) and will now face fourth seed Paula Badosa, who Irina Bara of Romania 6-3, 6-2.  

“I think it was a great match until 5-1, 5-2,” said Kvitova. “Suddenly I felt so exhausted from the games I had. I don’t know, it was just tough to describe. I got a little bit tighter and she just went for it a little bit more. She didn’t miss. It was really tough to close it out.”

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A day after Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev both fought back from match point down to reach round three, Karolina Pliskova became the latest women’s seed to fall on the Parisian clay, soundly beaten by the splendidly monikered Léolia Jeanjean, a French wildcard ranked 227th. 

“It’s incredible thinking that I actually won in two sets against a top-10 player, a previous No 1,” said Jeanjean, who is playing in a tour-level main draw for the first time, after her 6-2, 6-2 win over the Czech eighth seed. “It’s incredible.”

Incredible perhaps, but by no means unique. 

In short space, Pliskova was followed out of the tournament by the American star Danielle Collins, the ninth seed, who was undone 6-4, 6-3 by her compatriot Shelby Rogers. Next it was the turn of former champion Simona Halep, seeded 19th, who was stunned by Zheng Qinwen, a Chinese teenager ranked 74th and playing in only her second grand slam. Not to be outdone, Alizé Cornet later defeated 13th seed Jelena Ostapenko, the champion of five years ago, 6-0, 1-6, 6-3.

The vanquished quartet are in good company. 

The shocks began early on Sunday, when sixth seed Ons Jabeur, widely seen as a leading contender for the title after winning in Madrid and reaching the final in Rome finalist, was bundled out by Poland’s Magda Linette. Later the same day, Garbiñe Muguruza, the 2016 winner, was beaten by Estonia’s Kaia Kanepi. The leading women have been falling like dominoes ever since. 

Barbora Krejcikova, the defending champion and second seed, was seen off in three sets by world No 97 Diane Parry. Anett Kontaveit, seeded fifth, was beaten by Australia’s Ajla Tomljanovic. Maria Sakkari, a semi-finalist last year, fell to Karolina Muchova, while Emma Raducanu, the US Open champion and 12th seed, was toppled by Aliaksandra Sasnovich. 

Of the top 10 seeds, only Iga Swiatek, Paula Badosa and Aryna Sabalenka remain. All are in the top half of the draw; in the opposite section, 14th seed Belinda Bencic is the highest-ranked player left standing. 

What on Earth is going on? And why hasn’t the carnage in the women’s draw been echoed in the men’s, where the top 10 seeds remain intact? 

One theory is that the strength in depth of the women’s game is such that ranking and reputation counts for little.

Another is that, by virtue of playing over five sets rather than three, the men simply have longer to work things out, to steady the ship when things go awry. If the best-of-three format applied to both draws, then Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alcaraz and Felix Auger-Aliassime – respectively the third, fourth, sixth and ninth seeds – would all be starting their grass-court preparations by now. 

Paula Badosa, who recovered from a break down in the final set to advance 7-5, 3-6, 6-2 at the expense of Slovenia’s Kaja Juvan, finds truth in both suggestions.  

“The level is very high right now and you can lose against anyone,” said the Spanish third seed, whose evident irritation at receiving a warning for coaching after she dropped serve at the start of the third set spurred an immediate break back. 

“There have been a lot of surprises – and in the men’s, I have been following as well, yesterday so many tough matches, seeded [players], having match points [against them]. 

“But I think in their case having the five-set matches helped them, because you have a lot [more] time, and you have time to recover. In our case, it’s a little bit different on that side, because it’s like normal. The surprises are coming and coming, and it’s going to be always like that, because the level has raised a lot.”

Jessica Pegula has hit upon a novel solution to the more limited scope for comebacks over three sets: sprint for the line first, flirt with disaster later. Not for the faint-hearted, it is nonetheless an approach that allows plenty of time to stage a recovery. The 11th-seeded American first experimented with the strategy against China’s Wang Qiang in the opening round, where she led 6-2, 5-1 before eventually sealing the second set three games later, on her 10th match point.

Pegula only needed the nine match points against Anhelina Kalinina, although on this occasion the action played out over the long haul. Having missed three chances to seal victory at 6-1, 5-1, Pegula stuttered in the face of an extraordinary fightback by the Ukrainian world No 36 as Kalinina reeled off seven consecutive games. At 4-1 up in the decider she looked to have safely negotiated the crisis, but Kalinina once again came storming back before the American completed a 6-1, 5-7, 6-4 win. 

“There’s been, I think even on the men’s side, a lot of top players saving match points and winning in five,” said Pegula. “These are the rounds where anything can happen, and that’s why I’m even more happy to be through, considering the last few matches.”

Pegula nonetheless reaffirmed Badosa’s view that no opponent can be taken for granted. “As far as seeds dropping out, I think to me it’s not surprising, especially in the women’s game,” she said. “There’s so many good players right now that I take every match as being extremely tough.”

Nor should context be overlooked. Any number of factors can affect the outcome of a tennis match, and individual circumstances can never be discounted. Muguruza has been struggling for form all season. Krejcikova was returning from an extended injury layoff, and came into the tournament not so much undercooked as downright raw. Halep, meanwhile, suffered a panic attack during her loss to Qinwen, which goes to show that even former world No 1s are not immune to the natural pressures of competition. 

“I probably put pressure on myself too much, because I really wanted to do well,” said Halep. “I felt good. I practised. I worked hard. But it just didn’t happen, and probably I got a little bit of panic during [the match] thinking, overthinking. But I was leading, so there is no reason in particular why it happened. But it happened, so I have to accept it. It’s something normal that everybody has.”

Men are no less susceptible to such pressures, yet they have longer to work through the resulting challenges. Is the answer then for women to play best of five?

“It would be amazing for me, because I feel like my physical part is my strength,” said Sakkari following her loss to Muchova. “But the tournament’s never going to end, so we’re going to have to stay here for a month or build 15 more courts. So I don’t think that’s ever going to happen, because the calendar would have to be shorter.”

Even if the practicalities of scheduling allowed it, Pegula is unconvinced such a move would be for her. 

“I think women, we’ve been playing two out of three for a while,” she said. “I don’t, I can’t speak for anyone else, but I don’t want to play three out of five. I think that would just kind of draw things out. That’s just my personal opinion.

“But yeah, it’s definitely different when you’re looking at [the men], you know. You have to win more sets against those top players than in the women, and I think you see those momentum changes a lot more.”

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Pliskova, a semi-finalist in Melbourne two years ago, said in a statement: “Unfortunately I hurt my right hand in practice yesterday and I won’t be able to play in Adelaide, Sydney and [the] Australian Open this year. I am sad not being able to start my season in Australia and I will miss my Australian fans very much.”

Pliskova, 29, posted a picture on her social media accounts that showed her wearing a cast running from her right hand to her elbow. “Some days are worse than others,” wrote the Czech. “Unfortunately I will be out for a while and will not compete at my favourite tournaments in Australia. But time and belief can heal everything.”

The Australian hard-court swing has previously been a source of rich pickings for Pliskova, who has won the Brisbane International three times and was a finalist in Sydney six years ago. Pliskova reached the Australian Open quarter-finals for the second consecutive year in 2018, and was beaten by Naomi Osaka in the last four the following season.

The Czech will be joined on the sidelines by Jennifer Brady, who continues to struggle with a foot injury. The American, ranked 25th, has barely played since reaching her maiden grand slam final at Melbourne Park in February.

Brady withdrew midway through her third-round meeting with Coco Gauff at Roland Garros, citing “plantar fasciitis and a bone bruise”, and has played only three matches since. The 26-year-old’s most recent appearance was in Cincinnati in August, where she pulled out against Jelena Ostapenko in the second round. 

Serena Williams, a seven-time champion in Melbourne, will also be absent. Williams, who needs one more major to equal Margaret Court’s all-time record of 24 grand slam titles, confirmed her absence earlier this month on social media.

“Following the advice of my medical team, I have decided to withdraw from this year’s Australian Open,” wrote the former world No 1 on Twitter. “While this is not an easy decision to make, I am not where I need to be physically to compete.  

“Melbourne is one of my favourite cities to visit and I look forward to playing at the AO every year. I will miss seeing the fans but I am excited to return and compete at my highest level.”

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Were Pliskova to successfully name all the occasions on which she failed to emerge from a set with a game in 2021, it would be a feat of recollection to rank alongside those of John von Neumann, the mathematical genius who used to entertain friends by reciting randomly selected pages from the phone directory. In March, Pliskova was beaten 6-0, 6-2 by Jessica Pegula in Dubai. In April came a 6-0, 7-5 reversal against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in Madrid, while May brought the nadir, a 6-0, 6-0 defeat to Iga Swiatek in the Italian Open final. It is fair to say the 6-0 set has become the 29-year-old’s personal nemesis.

If Pliskova thought the WTA Finals would offer a sanctuary from such ignominy, she was unceremoniously disabused of the notion by Anett Kontaveit, a 6-4, 6-0 winner over the Czech in her second outing in Group Teotihuacán. That defeat left Pliskova’s hopes of reaching the last four in Guadalajara hanging by a thread. Her compatriot, Barbora Krejcikova, arrived at the party bearing scissors. Like Pliskova, Krejcikova needed a win to have any hope of progressing. It barely needs stating that she won the opening set 6-0, playing near-flawless tennis as Pliskova shot herself in the foot with a dozen unforced errors. 

Krejcikova was superb, landing 85% of her first serves and gifting her opponent just three mistakes, a measure of how well she has adjusted to the conditions since her opening-day travails against Kontaveit. Yet Pliskova was a listless, error-prone, downbeat shadow of the player who opened her campaign in Guadalajara with a dramatic three-set win over Garbiñe Muguruza.

“It’s a difficult situation, of course,” said Pliskova, who was bidding for a fourth consecutive semi-final berth at the WTA Finals. “You never want to start a match like this, with my serve and with my game, not to be able to make a game. I think it was a combination of her playing well, me not playing that well. 

“But you just go back to really trying to make the simple things. With the serve, maybe just to go for the serve which you feel the most confident about. Just to play simple, maybe a couple of cross-courts, not to go for crazy winners. I think there is not the situation if you’re down 6-0 that crazy winners will just come out of nowhere. So I just fought hard to give myself a chance, at least to wait. Maybe she’s going to miss a couple, because she didn’t really miss anything in the first set.”

And that’s the fascination of Pliskova. For all that she sometimes seems to amble about like a casual observer at a car crash of her own making, she is never as disengaged as she looks. It is a mistake merely to focus on her setbacks, however spectacular they may be, without also considering how she responds to them. Any player can lose a tennis match 6-0, 6-0; it takes a special player to bounce back from such a reversal by reaching a Wimbledon final, as Pliskova did less than two months after losing to Swiatek in Rome. The mental strength required to effect such a turnaround is immeasurably greater than whatever weakness may necessitate it. The fact is that Pliskova has a healthy attitude to the game, one born of experience, of an appreciation that losing is as much a part of the sport as winning. Why should she beat herself up after a bad loss? After all, as Pliskova says, “There’s always another match.” And, in this case, even another set or two. 

Having returned from a lengthy bathroom break, Pliskova sealed her first game of the match – and indeed her first in 15 attempts, having also lost the last eight against Kontaveit – with an ace. If she hoped it would be the start of a spectacular turnaround, she was quickly disabused of the notion. Krejcikova romped into a 4-2 lead, and it took all Pliskova’s powers of escapology to avoid falling behind by a second break, the Wimbledon finalist saving a break point with a crunching forehand as she survived an 11-minute game to hold for 4-3.

The effort proved worthwhile. A nervy-looking Krejcikova hit three double faults in the next game, gifting Pliskova a break, and when she subsequently missed a backhand volley that would have given her two break points for a 5-4 lead, the alarm bells were ringing for the younger woman. Krejcikova’s woes continued as she served to stay in the set, two more double faults handing Pliskova parity. Her chances of qualifying for the semi-finals now reliant on a combination of results and mathematics, Krejcikova continued to battle in the decider, forcing Pliskova to stave off break points in the fifth and ninth games. Having boldly battled her way to 5-4 despite a spate of double faults of her own, a fired-up Pliskova was not to be denied, capitalising on another flurry of errors from Krejcikova to keep her qualification hopes alive. 

“In the second, that game where she gave me three double-faults, of course that kind of helped me to come back,” said Pliskova. “On the other hand, I think it was just because I was constantly putting pressure, just getting better with every game I played. I thought till this moment she didn’t really miss much. Of course, it’s tough to play a perfect match.”

The irony was that none of it really mattered in the end. Muguruza, who needed a victory against group winner Kontaveit to progress to the semi-finals at Pliskova’s expense, got just that, breaking the Estonian’s 12-match winning streak with a 6-4, 6-4 victory. Muguruza, who broke early in both sets and held serve throughout, will face Paula Badosa in the last four as two Spaniards reached that stage for the first time in the event’s history. 

“It’s amazing% there are four players left and two of them are Spaniards,” said Muguruza, who is though to the semi-finals for the first time since her tournament debut in 2015. “I mean, that just shows that Spain has a great level of tennis and a great school.

“It is very special for me. This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for me to play the finals here. I’m extremely motivated.”

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Such strife is uncommon in the women’s game and, despite the best efforts of all concerned to skirt around the issue beforehand, it added a frisson of intrigue going in to their fourth meeting of the year. To no one’s great surprise, Muguruza had her game face on as she emerged from the bowels of the Estadio Tenis Akron to a rapturous reception from a Mexican crowd that has adopted the Venezuela-born Spaniard as one of their own. The feeling is mutual. Muguruza has made no secret of her delight at the decision to stage the event in a Latin American country, but she was unable to translate that zeal into victory in her opener against Karolina Pliskova and, having lost in a third-set tiebreak against the Czech, her continued interest in the tournament hinged on avoiding a third successive defeat to Krejcikova. 

Things looked unpromising for the former world No 1 when Krejcikova, who needed at least a set to avoid elimination after losing her opener against Anett Kontaveit, reeled off four games in a row to move ahead 6-2. It was a patchy start from both women – Muguruza’s 18 unforced errors narrowly outnumbered the Czech’s 15 – but Krejcikova was the more consistent of the two, converting all three of her break point opportunities. Conversely, a tense-looking Muguruza struggled to make her superior firepower tell, producing just two winners and finding the court with a meagre 58% of her first serves. Did she want it a little too much?

“I felt like in the first set I wasn’t doing enough,” said Muguruza. “Every time I served, she would break me or I would not dominate. I feel like the serve is such a weapon. Here in the altitude, I had to do something different. I concentrated a lot on making those first serves at least, so I could hold my serve, then try to break her. That was definitely a key today.”

Indeed it was. With the crowd firmly behind her, Muguruza claimed an early break as Krejcikova drove a pair of forehands long, and consolidated her advantage with some vastly improved serving. A second break soon followed and, although Krejcikova struck back to win two games in quick succession from 4-1 down, the Spaniard held firm. Moving more freely and striking the ball with greater authority from the baseline, Muguruza found the court with 71% of her first serves, firing down five aces as she levelled the contest. 

“In the second set the crowd really helped me,” said Muguruza. “I said [that] before, and I really mean it, because they cheer me up. I realised that, hey, I’m not leaving this court without changing things around at least, or giving Barbora the biggest fight.”

That she did. Having sealed a vital break at 1-1, smoking a forehand winner to convert her sixth break point after an epic 12-minute struggle, Muguruza sustained her momentum to complete a 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 win. How much did it mean to her? Any doubts were quickly dispelled, first by the gleeful relish of the clenched-first celebration she directed towards her coach, Conchita Martínez, and then by a perfunctory handshake with Krejcikova that was notable for a lack of eye contact. 

“I think she served pretty well,” said Krejcikova, who will face Pliskova in her final match of the round-robin stage. “I know that she can just raise her level up. It’s really tough when she’s serving well, especially in here with the tough conditions. I’ve been just trying to find a way. I was just a little short at the end. But I think I did a really good match, I did a really good performance … Today’s match was really close. I was just the one that was unlucky. That’s it. That’s how I see the match.”

If Muguruza is to progress from Group Teotihuacán, she will need to make an impression on the winning machine that is Kontaveit. A 6-4, 6-0 victory over Pliskova made it a dozen wins in a row for the Estonian, who booked her place in Guadalajara with successive titles in Cluj-Napoca and Moscow. With her first win in four meetings against the Czech, Kontaveit, the world No 8, is now guaranteed a place in the semi-finals.

“I think I wasn’t thinking about the fact that I was 3-0 down in previous matches,” said Kontaveit. “I think every time you step on the court, you have a new opportunity. The previous matches don’t really matter. It’s a new day and you have to beat the player you’re playing against. That’s how I approach the match.”

Key to Kontaveit’s success has been her ability to adapt to the high-altitude conditions in Guadalajara. “I think with every shot here, the ball takes off a little bit,” she reflected. “It’s just [about] trying to get used to it, play solid in your service games, not give any easy points, try to stay as focused as you can, make as many first serves as possible.”

Pliskova, who missed three chances to claim an early break, led 30-0 as she served to stay in the opening set at 4-5. But a Kontaveit return that clipped the net tape and died gave the Estonian a foothold in the game, and she needed no second invitation, taking the set with some blistering play off the ground.

“You can see she’s confident,” said Pliskova. “I’m sure she’s lucky at some times, but of course she’s playing great tennis right now. Sometimes I think when you are on this kind of streak of winning matches, you don’t really think [about] what to do, how to do [it], what happens if you play like this. I think she’s just really not thinking much, playing great tennis overall, for sure with a lot of confidence. But to me, it was not about if she’s playing well or not. I was playing normal, and she was just playing extremely well.” 

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