For the first time in her life, Rybakina, 24, was the defending champion at a grand slam. It was, as she put it, “a new chapter” – one brimming with potential plot twists. 

Rybakina, who had played just two matches on grass since pulling out of Roland Garros with a viral illness, could not be sure how her game – or her fitness – would hold up. What’s more, in Shelby Rogers, she faced an opponent who had won two of their five previous meetings – including the most recent, last summer on the grass courts of s’Hertogenbosch. 

So when Rybakina looked up to see Roger Federer in the front row of the Royal Box, she could have been forgiven for scooping up her belongings and making straight for the exit. There’s nothing like the presence of an eight-time Wimbledon champion to put your own achievements in perspective, and it hardly helped that her first service game was towards the Royal Box end, where the great Swiss was directly in her line of vision. It was probably not a coincidence that Rybakina opened with a double-fault.

“Yeah, maybe that’s why I was nervous, because actually I really like Roger,” Rybakina acknowledged after battling to a 4-6, 6-1, 6-2 win. “When I was younger, I was always watching him play. It was really special.”

Special was the right word. Federer, in town as a guest of the club, was earlier afforded a lengthy ovation by the Centre Court crowd, who were also treated to a video montage of the 41-year-old’s Wimbledon exploits. Seated next to him was the Princess of Wales: royalty alongside tennis royalty, as Andy Murray, who followed Rybakina on to Centre Court – where he swept aside fellow Brit Ryan Peniston 6-3, 6-0, 6-1 – later put it.

Back on court, though, the opening set was more about Rogers than Roger. The 30-year-old American, ranked 49th in the world, has form for an upset. A former quarter-finalist at Roland Garros and the US Open – where she stunned Ashleigh Barty, then the world No 1, in 2021 – Rogers’s CV includes wins over the likes of Serena Williams, Simona Halep and Maria Sakkari. 

Given her pedigree, it was no surprise when Rogers capitalised on Rybakina’s shaky start to snatch an immediate break, from where she brought her clean, powerful shot-making and big-match mentality to bear. As Rogers sealed the opening set with an ace, thoughts turned to 1994, when Steffi Graf was beaten by Lori McNeil, the first time a defending women’s champion had fallen in round one.

“I needed the full set, I would say – which is not the greatest, of course – to feel better and start playing also, and raise the level,” said Rybakina. “First matches, I think they’re always tough mentally to get [in]to the rhythm of the tournament.”

Find her level she did, though, most notably on serve. Among the leading women, only Sabalenka has a delivery of comparable quality, yet Rybakina’s motion is the more fluid and technically secure of the two, and it is no coincidence that she leads the women’s tour for aces. Nine of her 12 aces came in the final two sets, and as she found her service rhythm, confidence flowed into every area of her game. Remarkably, she lost only three points on her first serve in the entire contest, which she finished with a healthy ratio of 31 winners to 18 unforced errors.

“On grass, everything changes quickly,” said Rybakina.

Sabalenka later produced an emphatic display to see off Hungary’s Panna Udvardy, the world No 82, 6-3, 6-1. The Belarusian second seed, who revealed before the tournament that she could not bear to watch television coverage of Wimbledon last summer following the ban on Russian and Belarusian players, went about her business with evident relish on her return to a stage where she came within a couple of games of making a first final two years ago.

“I really love Wimbledon,” said Sabalenka after her victory on Centre Court. “I have great memories from two years ago. I made the semi-finals. I’m always enjoying my game here at Wimbledon, enjoying the atmosphere. 

“It was a really tough period for me last year. I was just super happy to be here this year. 

“I think I actually didn’t realise how much I missed Wimbledon last year till today’s match. It was really great performance, great atmosphere. Just super happy to be back.”

Rybakina and Sabalenka are seeded to meet in the last four, a matchup that would put at least one member of the world’s top three through to a sixth consecutive grand slam final. Rybakina, however, has no truck with the notion that the trio stand head and shoulders above the chasing pack. 

“There are still a lot of good players,” said Rybakina. “I think it’s too early to say anything about just three players, because it’s not like it was Roger or Djokovic. It’s still too far. That’s why I don’t really focus on that. Anyone still can beat anyone.”

Rogers offered what may prove a valuable early reminder of that truth for Rybakina, who has been handed a challenging draw. For now, though, the defending champion remains on course.

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Through it all, the one constant has been Ostapenko’s commitment to attacking tennis, and it was that enduring quality that saw her past Shelby Rogers at Indian Wells as she overcame a mid-match dip to reach her biggest semi-final since that run in Miami three years ago.

Full of confidence after subduing second seed Iga Swiatek in the previous round, Ostapenko made a storming start, winning five of the first six games to establish a commanding lead. The barrage of winners slowly subsided, however, and as Rogers came to terms with the firepower being thrown at her, she won three successive games to lend an air of respectability to the first-set scoreline. 

“From 5-1, I just stepped back a little bit and I was not that aggressive, and also maybe missed some balls, kind of gave her the opportunity to play,” said Ostapenko, the 24th seed. “If I just was playing the same like until 5-1, I think I could close the set a little bit easier than 6-4. I felt like I was rushing a little bit too much and making some stupid errors.”

Ostapenko was playing with fire. Rogers’ sparkling form of late has carried her to victories over world No 1 Ashleigh Barty at the US Open and, in the previous round here, Flushing Meadows finalist Leylah Fernandez. Having gained a foothold in the match, the tenacious American roused herself, treating Ostapenko’s second serve with the same contempt her own had received in the initial stages as she levelled the contest before racing ahead in the decider.

Rogers held three break points for a 4-1 lead in the third set, but a fired-up Ostapenko staved off the danger with some audacious play as she held firm for a 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 win.

“I think at that moment I just started to play really well,” said Ostapenko, who fill face former world No 1 Victoria Azarenka in Friday’s semi-final. “I raised my level. I think from 1-3 down, 0-40, I played like a top player. Before, I was rushing too much, making some unforced errors not in the right moments.

“I was just trying to kind of motivate myself and fight for every point … I felt like I needed to fire myself up, have some emotions, and that will help me. I think that did help me.”

Azarenka charted a more serene course to the last four, avenging her first-round defeat to Jessica Pegula at this year’s Australian Open with a 6-4, 6-2 victory over the American. 

“I started going for my shots from the beginning,” said Azarenka, who is bidding for a third title in Indian Wells. “I knew I had to apply pressure on her. 

“I think in the beginning of the match we had a lot of great rallies, a lot of points where I was like, ‘Oh, maybe I got this one,’ and she got me. I felt that I really just stuck to being aggressive and being consistent. I got my opportunities.”

In the top half of the draw, Anett Kotaveit of Estonia, the 18th seed, will face Tunisia’s Ons Jabeur for a place in the semi-finals, while former finalist Angelique Kerber takes on Spain’s Paula Badosa.

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Evidently Raducanu catches on fast. Making light of her inexperience, the Briton utterly dismantled Rogers, an opponent ranked 107 places above her who was playing in front of her home crowd. Rogers is a player of genuine pedigree, a former French and US Open quarter-finalist who, in the previous round, had caused the biggest upset of the tournament so far by beating world No 1 Ashleigh Barty. Against Raducanu, it was she who was made to look like the newcomer.

It took the British teenager a couple of games to adjust to her surroundings, as well it might in the cavernous surroundings of the Arthur Ashe Stadium. Having emerged on to court, she sat in her chair gazing up at the steeply banked seating, taking in the enormity of the world’s largest purpose-built tennis arena. Once she hit her stride, however, she accelerated through the gears in a manner befitting her passion for Formula One, racing to a 6-2, 6-1 victory in an hour and six minutes.

“I definitely wanted to take it all in,” said Raducanu. “I went out there to practice on Ashe this morning, but there was no one in the crowd. So it did feel different going out there with a crowd, all of the lights, displays on the board. It did take some adjusting, I felt.”

Brief though that period of adjustment was, it could easily have been more painful. A double fault in her opening service game – only her seventh of the tournament – landed Raducanu in immediate trouble on serve, and although she saved three break points with some courageous hitting, she finally buckled on the fourth, driving a forehand wide.

A chance to level came and went in the second game as Rogers held for 2-0, and when the American then hit a return that danced off the net tape and died, it looked momentarily as though fate might be conspiring against the teenager. Another double fault soon followed, and at 15-40 Raducanu was in danger of going down a double break. Two big serves steadied the ship, however, and having levelled at 2-2 she just kept going, reeling off 11 straight games to fashion an unassailable lead.

“That was pretty embarrassing,” said Rogers. “It was a tough day at the office. Unfortunately, I had to fail in front of thousands and thousands of people. So I have to live with that one. It’s a little – a lot, obviously – disappointing that I couldn’t muster up a little bit more today. But, you know, I told you guys the other night it took everything I had to beat Barty. I guess that was a little apparent today. The tank was a little bit empty.”

Rogers, it should be said, did not help herself. Against Barty, the American had reined in her natural inclination to hit through the opposition, varying her approach with moonballs and slices. Against Raducanu, she reverted to type, leathering the ball off both wings and in the process making 29 unforced errors. Her difficulties were compounded by the quality of Raducanu’s shot-making and movement. Once the Briton had found her rhythm, merely trading groundstrokes was no longer an option; Rogers had to keep pressing, which inevitably led to more mistakes.

Raducanu, who becomes only the third qualifier to reach the last eight in the open era, has yet to drop a set. She will face Belinda Bencic in the last eight after the Olympic champion, seeded 11th, survived an epic first set against Iga Swiatek, saving four set points to claim a 7-6 (14-12), 6-3 win. 

“I know Belinda,” said Raducanu. “She has a lot of experience on the tour. She’s in great form, having won Olympic gold. I’m also feeling good about my game, also confident with the amount of matches I’ve played. I feel like I’m building with each one. It will be an extremely difficult match. I know if I’m going to have a chance, I’m going to have to play some really good tennis.”

So far, that has not been a problem.

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Having suffered four consecutive defeats, Rogers decided to try something different, setting out to diminish the effectiveness of Barty’s big forehands and rhythm-disrupting sliced backhand by reverting to the kind of high, looping forehands she last deployed in the juniors. The tactic worked a treat, the unseeded Rogers clawing her way back from 5-2 down in the final set to deliver the biggest upset so far at this year’s US Open with a 6-2, 1-6, 7-6 (7-5) victory hewn of courage, guile and tenacity.

“I am stunned,” said Rogers, 28, the world No 43. “My heart rate is still very much elevated. I’m very excited with that win. Tonight, going on the court I told myself I didn’t want to lose the same way I lost the last five times against her. I just tried to do things a little bit differently. In the first set, I mixed in some high balls, I was super patient with her slice, because she’s not going to miss one very often. I know that very well.

“In the second and third, she definitely raised her level, as she does. I mean, she’s the No 1 player in the world for a reason. But I started wanting to hit the ball a little bit harder, find some winners if I could. That’s the tennis I like to play. That’s what she wants me to do. She wants to redirect and finesse me around the court, wait for me to miss. I was just happy and really proud of myself tonight for problem-solving, if you will, maybe doing some things I’m not super comfortable with, like hitting some high balls like I’m back in the 12s, playing defence honestly. It ended up working somehow.”

With Barty struggling to establish her customary rhythm and fluency, Rogers played a near-flawless opening set, making just three unforced errors to the top seed’s 17. It was a rare show of fallibility from Barty, and a dip in standards so sharp that it brought four double faults in one game alone was never likely to last. The Wimbledon champion swept through the second set, and stood on the brink of victory as she stepped up to serve for the match at 5-2 in the third, a double break in hand.

“There are so many thoughts that go through your mind,” said Rogers, “when you won a first set and the momentum changes. In a tennis match the momentum changes so often, especially against a player like that. She can just take the match back in a couple swings, a couple serves. She holds at love a few times. What can I even do against her, right? Down 5-2, two breaks, not looking too good. Not a situation I want to be in at all. I had some thoughts of, ‘Well, good try, here we go again’ kind of stuff, right? She got me again, too good.’ Then I tried to brush that away and say, ‘You know what, let’s try to make some balls here, let’s get the crowd into it.’”

As she chased and battled, Rogers found her audience in receptive mood, delirium descending on the Arthur Ashe Stadium for the second successive night as errors crept back into Barty’s game. As the crowd sensed an upset of comparable proportions to Naomi Osaka’s loss against Leylah Fernandez the previous evening, Rogers forced a tiebreak in which she matched Barty step for step until the Australian sent a forehand long to bring up match point. A 105mph serve from Rogers sealed the deal.

“It’s never nice when you have a couple opportunities to serve out a match and can’t get it done,” said Barty. “It’s a tough one to swallow. But it is what it is tonight. I found a way back into my match. I found a way to really turn it in my favour and wasn’t able to quite finish off.

“I played a pretty awful first set in the sense where I was erratic. I couldn’t quite find the rhythm of how I wanted to play. I found a way back into the match, found a way to turn the match back in my favour, have a couple of opportunities to serve it out and be within a couple of points. Disappointing not to get it done.”

Rogers will face a very different challenge next in the shape of British teenager Emma Raducanu, who continued her extraordinary run with a 6-0, 6-1 demolition of Sara Sorribes Tormo, the world No 41. While the margin of Raducanu’s victory over the indefatigable Spaniard scarcely seemed credible, it was just reward for the 18-year-old’s flawless and fearless shot-making against an opponent good enough to take down Barty in the opening round of the Olympics.

“She’s been in great form,” said Raducanu. “I can definitely tell why, because she’s such a tricky opponent to play. I kind of went out there with nothing to lose, and just knew that if I was going to win, or have a shot of winning, that I was going to have to dominate and hit the corners as many times as possible and not miss. I managed to execute today, so I’m really pleased.”

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